SOUTH Africa's bulk export volumes have risen for the fourth time this year after being recorded at a 19.40% year-on-year (y/y) growth rate in October from the –8.61% y/y growth of September, data supplied by the National Ports Authority of South Africa shows.
Exports increased 24.22% month-on-month (m/m) from –17.59% in September.
The year-to-date (ytd) print reflects the eighth positive month this year at 3.63% from the 2.02% ytd increase seen in September. This figure reveals
positive growth for a full quarter now since the –1.98% of June, contradicting reports from many quarters this year of exports running into severe trouble.
The data showed that bulk export volumes at the ports lifted to 11.7 million metric tons from 9.8 million tons in October a year ago and the 9.5 million of September this year.
The ytd total is 120.7 million tons from 116.5 million at the same time a
year ago.
The y/y increase in 2008 was 2.88% compared with only a 0.7% rise for all of 2007.
The July y/y increase of 36.82% was the highest this year and followed four months of negative prints. It also ushered in surprise trade surpluses on the trade balance for the last few months.
Although January total foreign trade export data showed a dramatic drop of 25.3% m/m, ushering in a record trade deficit of R17.4bn, export improvements have helped usher in the surprise trade surpluses this year.
South Africa recorded a surprise trade surplus of R3.221bn for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in June after the R2.020bn surplus of May. South Africa then recorded a trade
surplus of R446.758 million in July.
South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R3.871bn for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in September after the R1.981bn deficit of August. A R1.5bn deficit was expected, a survey by I-Net Bridge had found.
Two factors seem to be the main ingredients behind the surprising trend in exports growth. Firstly, trade with Asia continues to grow ahead of that with Europe, and secondly the trend in bulk export volumes from ports has been holding its own ytd.
Trade in South Africa has picked up markedly over the past decade. In 1998 exports only added up to R144.9bn and they ended 2008 at a very healthy R663.099bn by comparison, although an overall deficit of R64.5bn was seen.
The current recession, though, has crimped back strongly on the level of trade.