Caxton and CTP Publishers continues to underscore its investment case, holding firm against its sector peers, expecting to report higher earnings at the halfway stage of the financial year as it benefited from operational efficiencies and cost control.
The group expects to report headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months ended December of between 93c and 98c, representing an increase of 9.3%-15.2%.
Earnings per share are expected to be 24.8%-31.5% higher at between 94c and 99c.
The increase in HEPS is the result of improved trading profitability in a difficult trading environment where revenues declined marginally but this was mitigated through operational efficiencies and cost control, the company said.
The material increase in EPS is attributable to the loss on the disposal of the investment in Novus Holdings of R45.2m in the previous year, it said.
Its shares were up 1.6% at R12.47 in early trade on the JSE, valuing the company at R4.46bn.
In 2024, the JSE’s four media stocks performed well. Caxton registered a decent 15% growth in equity in 2024, lower than its sector peers. eMedia was up 20%, while African Media Entertainment (AME) and MultiChoice rose: 24% and 29% respectively
However, Caxton appears to offer the best investment case.
DStv operator MultiChoice was the best-performing media-related stock on the local bourse. That said, the share is a hard one to recommend, mainly given the group’s latest earnings report and a takeover bid by French broadcaster, Canal+. The bid has certainly done a lot to keep the group’s share price afloat at R107.35, trading well above the R63 trough reached in November 2023.
While last week’s announcement that the Johannesburg company and its French counterpart have agreed on a post-transaction structure that may withstand regulatory scrutiny, some of the fundamentals are still off.
Africa’s largest pay TV provider lost more than 20% of its subscribers in the past year, making for a tough interim earnings report to end-September. Its annual profit, or adjusted earnings per share, fell sharply from R1.5bn to R7m.
Outside of MultiChoice, both eMedia and AME are thinly traded stocks without much liquidity.
So far in 2025, MultiChoice, eMedia and AME are down 0.14%, 12.81% and 1.14%, respectively, while Caxton is up 1.38%.
Caxton continues to be aggressive in its acquisition strategy. While other publishers are shrinking their operations, Caxton sought to growth its own.
The company made a bid to buy assets being sold by Media24, but was snubbed, losing out to Novus.
Caxton, publisher of the once iconic Bona magazine, is bullish about SA’s economic prospects, saying it is well positioned to take advantage of an expected increase in consumer spending in its current financial year.
Revenues declined 4.7% to R6.647bn in the year to end-June, driven by losses from asset sales, reductions in publishing and a slowdown in its packaging operation.
Headline earnings per share (HEPS), which exclude the effect of one-off financial events, increased 4% to 196.1c.
Caxton, now a major investor in listed packaging business Mpact, has made it clear that it sees promise in this niche.
The company publishes a host of community newspapers and the national daily The Citizen, but it has since branched out into packaging, digital assets and stationery.
The group says its operations are well placed to “capitalise on any uptick in consumer spending and the hope that load-shedding risks continue to decline, inflationary pressures reduce and interest rates drop, which translate into improved trading conditions.”
Caxton expects to release its results by March 14.
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