The Minerals Council SA has highlighted significant improvements to SA’s electricity availability in a report released this week and praised Eskom for its “remarkable turnaround” last year.
The report adds that the sustained absence of power outages will drive faster economic growth in 2025.
Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) averaged 60.1% in 2024, a notable improvement from the 55% average recorded for the previous year. Seasonally adjusted real electricity generation between January and November was up 5.1% year on year, and only 4.2% below pre-Covid levels, according to Stats SA data.
The data reflects an improved performance by the country’s state-owned electricity provider Eskom, who has now managed to sustain nine months of uninterrupted power supply.
“Eskom has made a remarkable turnaround,” said Minerals Council economist Andre Lourens.
Lourens said the utility provider’s implementation of its Generation Recovery Plan has improved planned maintenance and the reliability of its power plants, highlighting Eskom’s recent success in synchronising Koeberg Unit 2 to the grid at the end of December, adding 970MW of generating capacity.
Additionally, Kusile Unit 6 and Medupi Unit 4 are set to come online during the first quarter of 2025, adding about 1,500MW to Eskom’s electricity generation capacity.
Along with other forecasters such as the IMF, we anticipate that the sustained absence of power cuts will be an important factor behind faster domestic real GDP growth in 2025.
“Overall, the improved electricity availability in SA is a positive development for economic activity heading into 2025,” said the council.
“Along with other forecasters such as the IMF, we anticipate that the sustained absence of power cuts will be an important factor behind faster domestic real GDP growth in 2025,” it said, with this year’s GDP growth now forecast at 1.5%-2%, up from below 1% last year.
The improved supply is a boon for SA’s most energy-intensive industries, particularly the local mining sector.
While the surging cost of electricity, fuelled by persistent tariff hikes, continues to weigh on the sector’s profitability and global competitiveness, Lourens said the council was “optimistic that electricity availability is no longer a binding constraint on mining activity”.
The most recent data shows that Eskom’s EAF declined from 60% in November to 56.9% in December, with the slight drop reflecting a deliberate increase in planned maintenance activities to prepare its generation fleet for the winter period, which begins in April.
As businesses and heavy industry paused operations for the festive season, overall electricity demand in December was about 2,000MW lower than the previous month’s, with Eskom leveraging the low demand to increase average maintenance activities to above 8,000MW in the last month of 2024.
The latest data paints an encouraging picture for the year ahead, with the council saying that load-shedding is unlikely to return in the near future. It cited December’s average electricity demand which, at 21,498MW, was closely tied with the month’s 21,473MW of dispatchable generation.
Eskom has warned that increased demand for electricity in winter could bring a potential shortfall of about 2,000MW in dispatchable generation in the winter months, but the council considers this forecast unlikely, as it assumes a high level of unplanned outages.
“Nevertheless, a slight risk of load-shedding during the winter cannot be entirely ruled out,” said Lourens.
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