SA’s pandemic-ravaged tourism sector has at least another year to go before it can see any signs of recovery, according to RMB CEO James Formby.
Formby said in a statement on Thursday that SA’s vaccine rollout would support a recovery in the battered local tourism sector in the second half of 2022.
Though a third wave of the pandemic is a threat, SA’s vaccination drive should be in full swing by July, which could ensure visitors will no longer look to avoid the country by year-end, said Formby.
“We have lagged many countries in getting our people vaccinated,” he said. “However, we are now accumulating vaccines and we are hopeful that through ongoing government and private sector collaboration, large-scale public vaccinations will start soon.”
SA’s tourism industry, which accounts for about 3% of GDP but is a disproportionately large employer, was ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic, with Stats SA data showing visitor numbers fell three-quarters in 2020, with half of those arriving in the first two months of that year.
It has hit tourism dependent JSE-listed stocks as well, with the shares of Tsogo Sun Hotels and Sun International having both almost halved since the beginning of 2020, even though they have staged recoveries in 2021.
According to RMB sector head for healthcare and hospitality Jessica Spira, hotels are running on average at 20% capacity, and for many their strategy is to try to hold on until the second half of 2022.
“Globally we expect tourists to avoid the popular cultural city trips like Paris and London for example, and instead favour experiences like safaris, beaches and adventure sports,” said Spira.
SA is well placed for this, she said. “As long as a large proportion of the population is vaccinated by next year we could see a revival in international tourism as confidence is restored.”
Not only was SA’s vaccine rollout slow, but the country was also missing out on “vaccine tourism”, said Unathi Henama, a tourism lecturer at the Tshwane University of Technology.
Some countries, including Cuba, Switzerland and the Maldives, were moving to offer inoculation on arrival, said Henama, adding SA’s slow rollout had already damaged its attractiveness for international tourists.
“SA is already a leader in health tourism, and based on a world class private health-care system could have been a destination for vaccine tourism had we had a more responsive state,” he said.
Correction: May 13 2020
An earlier version of this article incorrectly referred to James Formby as the FNB CEO. He is in fact the RMB CEO.
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