Energy market experts have sounded alarm bells over the move by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to impose quotas on cobalt exports, warning that the policy change could permanently hurt demand for the critical mineral.
The Congolese government recently announced it would impose annual quotas on outbound cobalt volumes in a bid to end the country’s seven-month ban on cobalt exports, introduced in February. The desperate attempt to arrest a decline in prices came after gradually easing supply pressures saw cobalt prices collapse for three straight years in 2022-24.
From October 16, by capping exports at 18,125 tonnes for the rest of 2025 and imposing annual quotas of 96,600 tonnes in 2026 and 2027, local authorities now hope to keep prices in check through strict oversight of the country’s mined supply.
The move to lift the export ban could provide a lifeline to mining companies such as Glencore, whose cobalt output since February has sat idle for months at its Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda operations.
Glencore said earlier this year that a big portion of its cobalt production was likely to remain unsold by the end of the year if the export ban remained in place.
In a webinar on Tuesday, experts from research group Benchmark warned that the proposed quotas may not provide the lifeline that local miners were hoping for. Despite offering short-term relief, the new quota system comes with its own disadvantages. Most importantly, it will keep global cobalt supply artificially low in the coming years, resulting in unpredictable and unstable market dynamics.
Researchers estimated that under the proposed quota system, prices could become so volatile that they may erode global demand for cobalt over the next two years.
“By 2027, there is a risk of demand destruction. There is a risk that you won’t have enough material to meet demand,” said Benchmark cobalt price analyst Roman Aubry.
For context, the ceiling that the DRC plans to impose on its cobalt production in 2026/27 is less than half of the volume the country produced in 2024.
Cobalt prices tend to be highly responsive to policy or supply shifts in the DRC, which was responsible for about 70% of the world’s cobalt last year.
In fact, by limiting the DRC’s exports in line with the planned quotas, the outlook for cobalt markets over the next three years goes from three straight years of surplus to three consecutive annual deficits in 2025, 2026 and 2027, according to Benchmark.
Benchmark predicted that global cobalt prices will remain elevated this year before spiking in 2026/27. The DRC’s ban on cobalt exports has already sent the metal’s price skyrocketing since February, with the spot price up more than 42% this year.
Glencore declined to comment on the policy change, but Bloomberg reported this week that the group was in talks over the sale of KCC, suggesting that regulatory uncertainty is taking its toll on the mining giant’s DRC unit.
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