SA’s retail property sector ended 2024 on a strong footing, with smaller shopping centres taking the lead in industry growth, according to the latest Clur shopping centre index.
The data highlights a shift in consumer trends, as these centres, less than 50,000m2, outperformed their larger counterparts in trading density growth.
The index, which tracks more than 130 shopping centres across 5.4-million square metres in SA and Namibia, revealed that the retail property sector has stabilised after the Covid-19 pandemic, with improving economic fundamentals and increased trading densities.
While super-regional centres have maintained the highest trading densities at R50,129/square metre, smaller and community centres have shown the strongest growth, recording R45,698/square metre with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, according to the index.
The final months of 2024 were crucial, with the combined November-December trading density reaching R55,844/square metre, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year increase. November delivered higher growth rates than December, with an annualised trading density of R46,755/square metre and 9.1% year-on-year growth. Small regional centres enjoyed the highest festive season growth at 9.2%, expanding by 6.6% compared to 2023.
December, however, remained the peak trading month, with super-regional centres achieving R84,230/square metre, followed by community and smaller centres at R65,165/square metre. Small regional centres continued to lead in growth, recording a 9.4% increase.
“Considering November and December performance independently shows that December delivered the higher trading densities, but November delivered the higher growth rates, in contrast to 2023 when December put Black Friday in the shade on both counts,” the data showed.
Among the provinces, the Western Cape delivered the highest overall trading density for 2024 at R46,691/square metre, with year-on-year growth of 4.8%. KwaZulu-Natal followed closely, with an annualised trading density of R43,314/square metre and the highest provincial festive season performance. In December alone, KwaZulu-Natal recorded a trading density of R76,119/square metre, with 8.6% year-on-year growth, outpacing inflation by 5.6%, the data showed.
KwaZulu-Natal’s success reinforces the importance of summer holiday tourism to its economy. Meanwhile, Gauteng, despite having the lowest trading density of the three key provinces, showed a strong year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%.
According to Clur International MD Belinda Clur, the data indicates that smaller shopping centres are driving industry growth, attributing this shift to evolving consumer priorities.
“The industry’s state of health seems to mirror the current consumer attitude towards wellness. We have, since Covid, seen an evolution from personal wellness to broader community and global wellness, and we now see this extending to a financial and mental wellness position. This is one of the most important and defining trends that needs to be considered in contemporary shopping centre strategy,” she said
While super-regional malls remain dominant in absolute trading density, their annualised growth rate has slowed. In contrast, small regional centres were the only segment to expand trading density growth year on year, achieving a 2.7% increase compared with 2023, according to Clur.
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