Although SA is expected to have recorded growth in the second quarter and come out of recession, persistently low economic growth means this will have little positive effect on the economy.
This is the backdrop against which Statistics SA will on Tuesday release GDP figures for the second quarter.
The country fell into recession following two consecutive quarters of contraction.
SA has not achieved three consecutive quarters of growth since 2014-15, marking one of the worst performances among emerging market economies.
Fitch Ratings, S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service have all cited low economic growth as a concern for SA’s sovereign rating.
SA may see a glimmer of growth soon, but Argon Asset Management economist Thabi Leoka said that a slight improvement in performance — such as the one expected on Tuesday — would not have a significant effect on the economy.
"It is still low growth … We have been flirting with a recession since 2016, so coming out of it doesn’t mark much of a change. We still have weak confidence levels, poor private sector investment and the employment numbers point to an economy that is still struggling.
"Importantly, it will not put us in a better light with credit rating agencies. The second quarter is just one figure in a year forecast to have very low growth," Leoka said.
Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan said: "Economic activity will remain constrained by depressed business and consumer confidence levels that have been linked to perceived heightened policy uncertainty."
FNB economist Mamello Matikinca said that the rebound in GDP would be off low statistical base factors, and underlying activity would still remain relatively suppressed.
The biggest contributing factor to growth in the second quarter is the rebound in the retail sector, but it is not expected to be sustained.
NKC economist Elize Kruger said economic growth for 2017 was expected to be dismal. The reality of recessionary conditions would hit hard with the release of the second-quarter unemployment rate of 27.7%.
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