SA’s formal employment rose by 48,000 in the fourth quarter to nearly 10-million, Stats SA said on Tuesday in its quarterly employment survey, which excludes agriculture and private households.
The quarter-on-quarter figures were mainly driven by trade and business services, respectively, mirroring the seasonal trends associated with the festive period.
“Indeed, there is typically an increase in employees in this sector of the economy over the seasonally significant festive period,” Investec economist Lara Hodes said in a note.
“Other industries failed to increase job numbers by any significant amount over the quarter, evincing the state of the economy, which saw GDP growth fall by a marked -1.3% quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted, in the fourth quarter.”
However, total employment dropped by 94,000 or 0.9% when measured on an annual basis, indicating the daunting task faced by President Cyril Ramaphosa and the governing ANC in turning around the country’s structurally high unemployment.
The energy supply constraints have also dimmed job creation prospects in the short term as many businesses are preoccupied with managing extra costs through backup power sources and so may not be investing in new capacity.
The Reserve Bank has said load-shedding is costing the economy nearly R1bn a day. The fallout of the power crisis was reflected in the decline of both consumer and business confidence indices in the first quarter of 2023.
“The rise in employment and earnings is great news, but we believe that the outlook for the job market remains uncertain as the economy faces significant headwinds from local and global fronts,” Nedbank economist Johannes Khosa said.
“Globally, the cost-of-living crisis continues to dampen consumer spending in major countries and exert pressure on commodity prices. This will weigh on export-orientated industries such as the mining and manufacturing sectors.”
The two energy-intensive sectors are suffering a double blow from load-shedding, Khosa said. The operating environment for businesses was aggravated by elevated inflation and interest rates, which eroded consumers’ disposable income.
Full-time employment increased by 6,000 or 0.1% quarter on quarter, but part-time employment rose by 42,000 or 4% over the same period, indicating that seasonal factors skewed the overall employment picture during the fourth quarter.
Still, part-time employment decreased by 85,000 or 7.2% year on year, Stats SA said in a statement.
Transport and community services sectors reported no quarterly change. However, there were decreases in construction (-10,000), manufacturing (-1,000) and electricity (-1,000).
Total gross earnings paid to employees increased by R67.8bn or 8.5%, to R866.6bn quarter on quarter, the survey indicated.
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