Exports of SA-made vehicles are expected to keep growing for the rest of this year, offsetting difficult domestic market conditions.
Figures released on Tuesday by industry association Naamsa show that exports in October numbered 40,302, a 39.5% increase on the 28,891 of October 2022.
As so often this year, however, it is difficult to draw clear comparisons. The October 2022 performance was blighted by a Transnet strike that further compromised SA’s already-ailing rail and ports network.
For the year to end-October, aggregate exports of 329,500 were 12.7% ahead of the 292,283 at the same stage last year.
Naamsa CEO Mikel Mabasa said: “Despite a longer-term global economic outlook which remains clouded by risks to the inflation trajectory, the recent outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas and the effects of climate change, the vehicle export momentum remains upward for the balance of the year.”
Domestic new-vehicle sales for the year to October were 2.1% ahead of last year — 446,877 against 437,850. Here, though, the momentum is downwards.
Sales of cars and commercial vehicles fell year on year for the third consecutive month in October. The 45,445 market was 2% fewer than the 46,350 of October 2022. Comparative figures were also down in August and September.
Car sales last month totalled 29,912, down 3.4% on October 2022. For the year to date, sales are 3.5% weaker, from 301,520 to 290,862.
However, sales of light commercials vehicles, mainly bakkies and minibuses, remain well ahead of 2022, as do most truck categories. The exception is heavy trucks, whose sales lag last year by 8.4%.
Mabasa said weak economic growth “remains a key challenge for the new-vehicle market in view of the close correlation between new-vehicle sales and the GDP growth rate. Alongside faster economic growth, moderate inflation and lower interest rates would go a long way to support the new vehicle market over the medium term.”
National Automobile Dealers Association (Nada) vice-chair Thembinkosi Pantsi was relatively upbeat, saying October’s sales were better than expected.
He was particularly pleased by improved sales of heavy trucks. “This indicates a measure of underlying confidence in the business sector, considering that these vehicles represent significant investments at a time when many economic commentators are raising warning flags,” he said.
WesBank marketing head Lebogang Gaoaketse also took a positive view. Even if the market is currently struggling, the fact that 2023 sales are slightly ahead of 2022 “remains a positive step in the market’s recovery”, he said, adding: “The market remains under pressure, but at relatively stable and reassuring levels.”
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