The announcement earlier in December by Botswana to extend and expand import restrictions on fresh agricultural goods such as tomatoes, potatoes, onions and other produce is likely to be opposed by SA, says US-based BMI-FitchSolutions.
The extension of import restrictions to 2025 — first introduced in 2021 and only meant to last two years — will not only affect domestic production and imports, BMI warned. If more products were to be included, it could increase SA concerns over the policy.
“The SA department of agriculture, land reform and rural development has noted its worries about the potential negative impact of the continued ban on bilateral trade, and argued that these restrictions are a violation of the Southern Africa Customs Union agreement,” BMI said.
The continuation of import restrictions poses upside risk to domestic production in the country and provides headwinds to imports, it said.
Botswana first implemented its policy to expand import restrictions on fresh produce in December 2021. The government said the aim was to bolster Botswana’s production and reduce its reliance on imports for food.
There was pushback from SA, an exporter of fresh produce to Botswana when the policy was implemented in 2021. December 2023’s extension of the curbs to 2025 prompted agriculture, land reform & rural development minister Thoko Didiza to seek “an urgent meeting” with her Botswana counterpart in the hope of resolving the impasse through negotiation.
BMI said while edible vegetables affected by the ban represent a small portion of SA agricultural exports to Botswana, “we expect that SA will continue to oppose the restrictions no matter the developments”.
“Botswana has experienced a notable reduction in its import expenditure on fresh vegetables since the initial set of restrictions was introduced in 2021, with a significant decline of 71% year on year in 2022,” BMI said.
When Botswana first implemented the policy, the import ban targeted 16 vegetables, including staples such as tomatoes, potatoes and onions. In the most recent announcement, its department of agriculture said from July 2024 it will increase the number of products affected to 32.
More detailed information on which new products will be targeted by the ban has yet to be released.
BMI said before the 2021 restrictions, Botswana was heavily dependent on agricultural imports, with staples such as onions, potatoes, and tomatoes imported in considerable quantities, constituting 33.3%, 100%, and 42.9% respectively of the nation’s consumption.
“The majority of these imports are sourced from SA,” BMI said. Although Botswana aims to achieve self-sufficiency through these restrictions, the agency remains sceptical about the likelihood of success.
This is mainly because Botswana is very prone to drought, with the Kalahari Desert taking up more than 70% of its territory. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN only 0.65% of Botswana’s land area is suitable for agriculture.
“These structural, climatic concerns mean that restrictions on imports are unlikely to significantly increase production, and have the potential to instead exacerbate food security concerns,” BMI said.
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