Nedbank and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University both expect April’s consumer inflation rate to be unchanged from March’s 5.3%. It was 5.6% in February.
BER economist Tracey-Lee Solomon said inflation this year was likely to have peaked in February, but persistent upside pressure means inflation could remain sticky and dip below 5% only in the second half.
A release that will be seized on by politicians will be the 2023 general household survey on Thursday, which will show the progress or otherwise of SA citizens over the past 30 years.
Economists will be focusing on the survey’s selected development indicators, especially those of the past five years of Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, and comparing them with the presidency of Thabo Mbeki.
A release that generally tends to be overlooked is the land transport survey, with March’s data due on Tuesday. The transport sector has been the best-performing sector for several quarters. In 2023, it grew 4.3% after an 8.3% surge in 2022. Another sector that has grown by above-average rates recently is tourism, and the March tourism accommodation figures on Monday should show the effects of an earlier Easter this year than in 2023.
The Reserve Bank’s leading indicator on Tuesday is expected by Trading Economics to rise 0.6% month on month in March after a 1.7% jump in February. This may have been influenced by the suspension of load-shedding in the final week of March.
Another release that tends to be overlooked by SA economists is new-car registrations in the EU. As the platinum price rose above $1,000/oz in the past week for the first time since June 2023, the data will indicate demand for platinum-free battery electric vehicles (BEV). In March, BEV registrations fell 11.3% year on year, which meant their market share shrank to 13% from 13.9% a year earlier. This was due mostly to a 28.9% decrease in Germany, the EU’s largest economy.
The first quarter of 2024 saw total platinum output at the second-lowest level since the World Platinum Investment Council began data collection, while automotive industry demand for the metal was the strongest in seven years as substitution towards platinum-free vehicles slowed. Electric car taxes rose and consumers were put off by the expense of green alternatives to internal combustion engines. This trend may accelerate as both the US and EU impose higher tariffs on Chinese BEVs.
On Wednesday, the focus will shift to UK inflation data. The consensus forecast is that inflation will slow to 2.1% year on year in April from 3.2% in March. This could prompt the Bank of England to cut rates at its next monetary policy committee meeting on June 20, well ahead of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Inflation in the US remains high at 3.4% in April year on year from 3.5% in March. “Higher for longer” could be the message from the US federal open market committee, as several committee members will give speeches during the week.
Preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for Japan, India, the eurozone, the UK and US will follow on Thursday, with Trading Economics in most cases expecting an improvement in May from April. For instance, it expects a rise to 46 in May for the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI from 45.7 in April, while the consensus forecast is a more optimistic 46.6.
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