With just 10 days to go to the national election, markets are waiting for final polls, which are expected to show a last-minute “bump” in support for the ANC — suggesting a baseline outcome that is “relatively market friendly”, in the words of Citi economist Gina Schoeman.
And analysts are still probing the impact of post-election scenarios, including one in which the “moonshot pact” ousts the ANC government, but which Oxford Economics Africa and Fitch unit BMI describe as highly unlikely.
Schoeman said latest face-to-face polling results from MarkData, which were due out on Sunday, would be closely watched — as would a possible final poll from Ipsos, which also does face-to-face polls. Most in the market expect a final “bump” in support for the ANC.
“We reiterate our long-standing view that the most likely outcome is that the ANC receives around 45% of the national vote and forms a national coalition with the IFP and smaller parties.
“This would result in a relatively market-friendly reaction in our view,” Schoeman said in a recent note.
Meanwhile, Oxford Economics Africa has released the last of its four post-election coalition scenarios, in which the centre-right multiparty charter (MPC, originally the moonshot pact) secures enough seats to form a majority and govern without the ANC.
These parties collectively won only a third of the vote in the 2021 municipal elections, and a major shift in voter behaviour would be required to give them a majority — so this is the least likely of its four scenarios, the firm said.
In this scenario the MPC government would be committed to a smaller government, greater private sector participation and strong protection of ownership rights. Macroeconomic outcomes would be positive:
“Widespread market euphoria shows investors are glad to see the back of the ANC and local assets rally strongly across the board,” Oxford Economics Africa said in a report. “Real GDP growth accelerates to 2.8% in 2026 and averages 2.4% between 2026 and 2030.”
However, senior political analyst Louw Nel warned that political regime risk would be higher than in the firm’s baseline scenario, which was an “ANC and friends” outcome in which the ANC got 45%-50% and formed a coalition with smaller parties such as the IFP. “In the moonshot scenario the inexperienced and sometimes fractious incoming government faces pushback from the ANC lifers in the bureaucracy and an unruly parliament,” Nel said.
“The risk of protests, union strikes and unrest is severely elevated. However, risks should dissipate over time.”
A significant concern would be how the current regime would respond to being out of power, with hundreds of ANC people out of work.
The MPC could also struggle to find agreement internally over controversial issues such as employment equity and immigration policy.
An MPC takeover scenario would see bond yields drop into single digits and the rand strengthen sharply, to average R17.70/$ next year.
Investor confidence and private sector investment would improve significantly, providing a much needed impetus to economic growth. Higher fixed investment in network industries would boost industrial production, and exports would be almost R90bn higher than baseline by 2030.
The public debt ratio would stabilise at a lower level.
Schoeman said in a note on Friday that after MarkData eNCA’s March poll — which showed the ANC at 41.4%, DA at 20%, EFF at 15.5%, MK at 10.9% and IFP at 4.3% — “we will be watching closely how these scores adjust in its updated and final poll ... The upward trend in the Social Research Foundation daily polling, together with our ongoing local discussions, suggest the ANC is likely to move upwards”, she said. “If not there may be more uncertainty in the minds of investors leading into the election than the receding risk we are picking up in investor views right now.”
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