The second full week of the year looks quiet for domestic data releases, apart from electricity production figures coming out on Thursday.
Yet, a number of pivotal events are lined up for the week ahead.
On Monday, the Competition Commission will release the final report of the Fresh Produce Market Inquiry in Pretoria. The report wraps up an investigation into competition in the fresh produce value chain, aiming to make the sector fairer, more inclusive and sustainable.
Since the sector plays a key role in food security and economic stability, policymakers and stakeholders will be watching closely to see what actions are recommended.
On Thursday, Stats SA will publish electricity production data for November.
The figures are expected to show some stabilisation or a slight improvement compared with the sharp declines recorded during the same period last year.
Business Day reported that electricity production in November 2023 fell 3.3% year on year, as rotational power cuts continued to weigh on the economy and business confidence.
On a month-to-month basis, production also fell 2.7%, attributed to an increase in load-shedding — 630 hours in November 2023, compared with 263 hours in October 2023.
Eskom’s outlook for the summer period (September 1 2024 to March 31), as reported in August, predicted a load-shedding-free season due to improvements in power generation.
On Friday, the power utility confirmed that this forecast remains on track, with unplanned outages averaging 11,982MW so far — 1,018MW less than the base case of 13,000MW for the summer.
Also on Thursday and Friday, SA will host the G20’s first Sustainable Finance Working Group meeting of the year. This gathering is part of the G20’s broader efforts to align global capital flows with climate goals and the sustainable development goals (SDGs).
On the global calendar
Globally, preparations are in full swing for the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, set to take place January 20-24 in Davos, Switzerland. SA government ministers and business leaders from the Davos delegation will hold a media briefing on Thursday.
This year’s theme, “Collaboration in a Fragmented World”, focuses on bridging economic divides, tackling climate challenges and exploring how technology will shape future growth.
With economic recovery still uneven, and geopolitical tensions high, Davos is expected to provide key insights into global policy priorities.
Meanwhile, on Friday, the US nonfarm payroll report showed stronger-than-expected results. December payrolls increased by 256,000, beating the 165,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, surprising analysts who expected it to hold at 4.2% or even edge up to 4.3%.
“All of this provides clear backing for a no-change interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve later this month,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York.
“Traders are now predicting a Fed cut only in October, significantly later than prior forecasts,” said Wichard Cilliers, TreasuryONE director and head of market risk.
US CPI data is due on Wednesday. “Next week’s US consumer inflation data is expected to show a deceleration in price pressure on an annual basis, but monthly momentum is predicted to be unchanged at 0.3%,” said Lisette IJssel de Schepper, an economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
Nedbank economists expect “the market consensus of an unchanged 2.7% year on year in December”.
In China, trade data will be released on Monday, followed by GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales figures on Friday.
IJssel de Schepper noted that growth would need to pick up for Beijing to meet its “about 5%” target after averaging 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year.
“While authorities introduced a string of policy measures to stimulate the economy in the last weeks of the year, it remains to be seen whether the effect thereof was sufficient and quick enough … Chinese authorities generally ‘get’ what they target.”
Inflation data for the UK and eurozone will also come out on Wednesday.
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