What is four parts Japanese, two parts Chinese and one part each of Korean, French, American and German?
It’s the top 10 of vehicle brands in SA.
Figures published last week by vehicle manufacturers and importers association Naamsa underscore the changing dynamic of the SA new-vehicle market.
Sales of new cars and commercial vehicles in 2024 totalled 515,712. That was 3% fewer than the 531,775 of 2023. It meant the local market has still not recovered to pre-Covid levels. In 2019, sales were 536,612.
The good news is that December’s 41,273 sales were 2.5% higher than those of December 2023 — the third month running of year-on-year improvement. This late-year revival, after a grim first few months of 2024, gives hope that recovery may finally be on the cards, even if continued economic weakness and consumer indebtedness suggest no-one get too excited.
Brandon Cohen, chair of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association, said that “an evident lack of confidence in the business sector weighed heavily on commercial vehicle sales”.
Cars were the only vehicle category to increase sales in 2024, by 1.1%, from 347,379 to 351,302. There was a 12% drop in demand for light commercial vehicles, mainly bakkies and minibuses, from 151,490 to 133,254. Cohen said that was due primarily to the minibus taxi industry’s main provider of credit finance cutting its exposure to the sector and other financial institutions following suit.
Sales of medium commercial vehicles fell 6.5% last year and those of heavy trucks and buses 4.9%.
But the numbers behind these numbers are of noteworthy as the changing fortunes of market newcomers and established brands become more pronounced.
Some things do not change. Toyota SA, with brands including Lexus and Hino, was market leader for the 45th year running in 2024. It sold almost 120,000 cars, bakkies, minibuses and trucks. Its Hilux bakkie was once again the single biggest selling vehicle in SA though its advertising says “it’s a Hilux, not a bakkie”.
According to Naamsa, Volkswagen Group Africa, which includes the Audi brand, was in second place, just short of 70,000 sales last year. That put it uncomfortably within range of Suzuki, at almost 60,000.
It is the shuffling below these three that is of most interest. In order, the next biggest sellers are Ford, Hyundai, Isuzu, Nissan, Chery, Great Wall Motors (GWM) and Renault. Kia is 11th, but it, and Hyundai, Chery, GWM and Renault move sharply up the car-sales charts once you exclude the bakkie sales of Ford, Isuzu and Nissan. In all three cases, the overwhelming majority of their sales are bakkies. BMW, which includes Mini, also makes it into the cars top 10.
Early part in 2024 the Haval car brand reported its sales separately, but they are now incorporated into those of parent company GWM.
The rise of Chinese vehicles brands was undoubtedly one of the market stories of 2024. But, while their sales rose promisingly, they are still well short of the dominance some people predict. During the year, several new Chinese brands, including global electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD, entered the local market.
China is the world’s leading EV producer, and several of its brands in SA have electric offerings at attractive prices. With SA automotive policy moving hesitatingly towards local EV production and sales, they will be in a strong position if and when EV sales take off. As things stand, EV sales, particularly those of plug-in vehicles, are a tiny fraction of the market.
The newest Chinese entrant is Dongfeng, one of China’s biggest motor companies, which entered the SA market on December 12 with an EV called the Box.
China’s global EV growth is one of the reasons Naamsa CEO Mikel Mabasa gives for the drop in vehicle exports in 2024. They fell 22.8%, from 399,594 to 308,830. Mabasa blames slowing demand in the EU, the SA industry’s main export region, caused by low economic growth, stricter emission rules and “competition from cheaper electric vehicle imports from China”.
Numbers were also affected by BMW SA’s manufacturing phase-out of its old X3 car and replacement by a new model. In June and July last year, monthly exports totalled 12,535. In August and September, during the product changeover, the company exported a single car. By December, this was back to 4,700.
SA’s motor industry exports two-thirds of the vehicles it makes. For some companies it is their core business. Naamsa reports that in 2024, Mercedes-Benz SA exported 84,768 vehicles while selling only 6,238 in SA. Ford exported 76,274 (local 32,766) and BMW 46,368 (12,599), VW exported 46,329 and Toyota 45,976.
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