New-vehicle sales in 2025 got off to a flying start in January.
Figures published on Monday showed that 46,398 new cars and commercial vehicles were sold to South African customers last month.
That was 4,375 — or 10.4% — more than the 42,023 of January 2024. The numbers were a continuation of a strong sales rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Even so, Brandon Cohen, chair of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association, called the January result “a most welcome surprise”.
Mikel Mabasa, CEO of vehicle manufacturers and importers association Naamsa, said: “Early indicators suggest a potential turning-point for the new-vehicle market in 2025, driven by stronger economic prospects, growing consumer and business confidence and improving new-vehicle sales data.”
There was good news, too, for vehicle exports. January’s total of 25,348 was 29.7% better than the 19,545 of a year earlier.
This was the second slice of export good news within a few days. Last week, Naamsa corrected figures showing SA vehicle exports collapsed by 22.8% in 2024, to 308,380.
In fact, shipments totalled 390,845. — a drop of only 2.2%. The error was due mainly to a mistake by Volkswagen Group Africa, which incorrectly classified many of the vehicles leaving its assembly plant at Kariega, in the Eastern Cape.
Although more than 130,000 Polo cars built there in 2024 were exported to 30-plus markets around the world, many were not classified as leaving SA.
The company says new controls will prevent a repetition. Most of the impetus for stronger local sales came from the car market.
Car sales rose by 18.3%, from 29,181 to 34,530.
Light commercial vehicles, mainly bakkies and minibuses, saw their market fall by 9.1%. Sales of medium-sized trucks improved by 11.6%, and heavies by 5.6%.
Extra-heavies, however, retreated 6.1%. Rory Schulz, sales director of local assembler UD Trucks Southern Africa, said he expected the truck market to be “flat” in 2025.
Despite MD Filip Van den Heede suggesting many economic constraints inhibiting the market — such as inflation, local political uncertainty, load-shedding and SA’s credit rating — show signs of easing, Schulz said: “My view is that we will see the market largely unchanged in 2025.”
Despite the promising start to the year, industry players cautioned against complacency and over-expectation.
Mabasa and Toyota SA president Andrew Kirby both recently forecast only modest market growth in 2025. WesBank marketing head Lebo Gaoaketse said today that despite the latest cut in interest rates, and the expectation of more to come, “constrained household budgets will continue to remain vigilant of spend despite lower inflationary pressures overall”.
He added that the ever-increasing number of Chinese vehicle brands entering the market with aggressive pricing, “will continue to disrupt the market in 2025”.
Cohen observed: “Although we are obviously delighted at the strong performance of the overall market, particularly in the passenger car segment and the recent small drop in interest rates, several challenges remain for the motor trade.”
"Affordability continues to be a concern as the cost of living rises, compounded by a fourth successive fuel price hike, electricity increases and the looming possibility of further load-shedding. Additionally, there is the threat of tariffs and a freeze on funding from the United States.”
Uncertainty about what US President Donald Trump will do next also casts a potential cloud over exports.
His imposition of protectionist duties on products from many US trading partners, and potential retaliation from those partners, make global trade conditions impossible to predict.
The SA motor industry exports thousands of cars, and billions of rand of components, to the US each year.
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