SA’s 2023/24 summer crop figures paint a tough picture for the agriculture sector, but an agriculture expert is confident that this year will be one of recovery.
The crop estimates committee (CEC) on Thursday released its final summer crop production figures for the 2023/24 season, showing only modest improvements from previous estimates while confirming the damage inflicted by last year’s midsummer drought.
Yet, optimism is growing that a combination of better weather, improved biosecurity and rising exports will drive a turnaround this year.
On Thursday, the committee reported a total commercial maize crop of 12.85-million tonnes, up just 0.99% from the November estimate of 12.72-million tonnes.
White maize production rose to 6.055-million tonnes, up 0.80%, and yellow maize reached 6.795-million tonnes, 1.16% higher.
However, both totals were sharply lower than the previous year’s harvest, reflecting the drought’s devastation of summer grains and oilseeds.
Sunflower seed production was revised slightly downward to 632,000 tonnes, 0.59% lower, while soya beans and groundnuts posted small gains.
The R100bn-plus agriculture sector, a major employer and source of foreign exchange, has been under pressure over the past year. Output plummeted 29% in the third quarter, marking the largest quarterly decline since 1970 and contributing to a surprise 0.3% contraction in GDP.
“The crop estimates committee’s final view on the 2023/24 summer grains and oilseeds confirms that we had a tough season, characterised by the midsummer drought,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA.
Despite these uninspiring numbers, Sihlobo remained optimistic about the outlook for 2025.
“Still, SA is food secure. We benefited from the large supplies or carry-over stocks from the previous season. The large stocks of 2.4-million tonnes of maize from the last season enabled SA to remain a net exporter of maize,” he said.
Sihlobo is upbeat about this year, pointing to better conditions and a broader agricultural recovery. “We think this will be a year of a recovery in agriculture. We were hit by the midsummer drought last year, El Niño, but this year, we are in a La Niña period,” he told stakeholders at Old Mutual’s 2025 outlook on Wednesday.
“Farmers have managed to plant reasonably well, even though some planted almost a month behind the typical cycle.”
Exports remained a bright spot for the sector, with agriculture benefiting from strong fruit shipments and resilient maize exports.
“When you look at the export figures, you will see that agriculture will probably have crossed $14bn for the first time last year, in part because of the higher volumes that are coming out of the fruits,” the Old Mutual audience heard.
Regarding the latest CEC data, Sihlobo noted SA’s maize export performance. “In the week of January 31, SA exported 42,615 tonnes of maize. Of this volume, 59% was exported to Zimbabwe, 15% to Botswana, 13% to Namibia, and the balance was distributed to the neighbouring African countries.”
He said total maize exports for the 2024/25 marketing year stood at 1.8-million tonnes, out of an expected 1.9-million tonnes. This was lower than the 3.44-million tonnes exported during the 2023/24 marketing year, largely due to the midsummer drought.
Sihlobo spoke of the need for structural reforms to sustain the sector’s recovery. “We must continue our efforts on both animal and plant health issues as these are key for agricultural long-term productivity gains,” he said.
He urged policymakers to address bottlenecks such as backlogs in agricultural standards, road infrastructure, rural crime, inefficient ports and factors that continue to hinder growth and investment in the sector.
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