With President Cyril Ramaphosa preparing to send envoys to Washington and other capitals worldwide to clarify Pretoria’s foreign and domestic policies, Moody’s Ratings has warned of the risk to SA’s growth if the frosty relations between the US and SA spill over to trade.
The ratings agency said tensions with the US posed a risk to SA’s growth recovery.
“The decision by the new US administration to suspend aid to SA could weigh on the growth outlook if it escalates to trade restrictions or impedes foreign investor sentiment,” the ratings agency said of the tensions between the two countries.
Trade restrictions could extend to SA’s exclusion from its preferential access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
SA, which boasts the most advanced, broad-based economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, has been in the crosshairs of Donald Trump’s administration, largely due to falsehoods peddled about the “seizure” of land from white farmers after the signing of the Expropriation Act into law.
The US, which is yet to appoint an ambassador to SA, has also taken umbrage at Pretoria’s stance against Israel in its conflict with Palestine.
SA a year ago brought a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s judicial arm, alleging Israel committed genocide in Gaza, drawing ire from US legislators, some of whom have made it to Trump’s cabinet — including secretary of state Marco Rubio.
Rubio has already opted out of a meeting of foreign ministers of the G20 group of countries in Joburg later this month, accusing Pretoria of “anti-Americanism”.
Trump last week ramped up the pressure when he signed an executive order stopping all aid to SA and offering refugee status to Afrikaners.
Michelle Gavin, a senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think-tank specialising in US foreign policy and international relations, said the notion that white people were persecuted in SA was hard to square with facts.
“So why has the Trump administration seized on SA in this way? It’s both a worrying sign of the quality of information that actually reaches the president, and an indication of the kind of bizarre policies that result from seeing the world through Elon Musk and Maga [Make America Great Again]-coloured glasses,” Gavin said in a note published on the outfit’s website.
“The spectacle of the White House pledging support for white SA ‘refugees’ while demonising other asylum-seekers is as absurd as it is racist.
“Overt racism is not a great way to combat declining US influence on the African continent. Neither are gratuitous attacks, like secretary of state Marco Rubio feigning outrage at SA’s aim to focus the upcoming G20 summit on solidarity, equality and sustainability,” she said.
Gavin, who from 2011 to 2014 served as US ambassador to Botswana and served concurrently as the US representative to the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), also said “overreaction” to SA’s domestic political debate about land reform was unjustified.
The only politically viable alternatives to the current governing alliance in SA would be far more antagonistic to US interests. In other words, tipping SA towards failure is likely to make the US worse off, not better.
— Michelle Gavin, a senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations
“President Trump is strengthening the hand of some of the most destructive and anti-American forces in SA society. Dialling up the pressure on the current SA government with no clear strategy other than to make an example of the country begs the question of what the US would prefer,” she said.
“The only politically viable alternatives to the current governing alliance in SA would be far more antagonistic to US interests. In other words, tipping SA towards failure is likely to make the US worse off, not better.”
Data from the office of the US Trade Representative shows US total goods trade with SA was $20.5bn in 2024. US goods exports to SA in 2024 were $5.8bn in the period, while US goods imports from SA in 2024 were $14.7bn.
Many US companies have also set bases in SA, which is seen as a gateway to the rest of Africa.
The SA Chamber of Commerce in the USA (Saccusa) said it had formally requested the US state department that all communication related to the executive order be directed to the US embassy in SA.
“Saccusa remains steadfast in its mission to promote binational trade and investment between SA and the US. The chamber urges both governments to engage in diplomatic dialogue to address the underlying factors leading to this executive order while seeking solutions that uphold economic stability and bilateral co-operation.”
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