Cautious optimism about growth in new-vehicle sales may be strengthening but it’s too soon to talk confidently of sustainable market recovery, WesBank marketing head Lebo Gaoaketse said on Monday.
Figures released by motor industry association Naamsa showed that 47,978 cars and commercial vehicles were sold last month. That was 7.3% more than the 44,723 of February 2024. After two months of 2025, aggregate sales of new vehicles totalled 94,968 — 9.5% more than the 86,746 at the same stage last year. This growth comes on top of a strong final quarter of 2024.
Gaoaketse said 2025 new-vehicle sales have “certainly come out of the starting blocks with gusto”.
“The market will be hoping for stamina at similar levels, but affordability remains high on SA consumers’ budget considerations and could still trip up this early growth momentum.”
He said three interest rate cuts since September had helped improve consumer sentiment.
“While further expected cuts would continue to address affordability and stimulate market activity, other inflationary increases, including electricity tariffs and fuel prices, persist and have many economists questioning the expected pace of interest rate cuts, warning there may be fewer cuts throughout the year than previously envisioned.”
He added that short-term uncertainty caused by the postponed budget speech, allied to the recent return of load-shedding, could also stunt market positivity.
His mood was echoed by Naamsa CEO Mikel Mabasa, who warned of inflationary risks, particularly from the planned 12.74% electricity tariff hike in April, which could create cost pressures for manufacturers.
Nevertheless, he said the February sales figures “reflect an industry that is adapting to both domestic tailwinds and global headwinds, reaffirming its structural resilience”.
Cars once again led the way in February. Sales of 33,757 were 16.8% stronger than the 28,903 of a year earlier. Light commercial vehicles, mainly bakkies and minibus taxis, lost ground, however, by 11.4%.
Sales of medium-sized and heavy trucks grew by 15.2% and 26.8% respectively but extra-heavies lost ground by 22.1%.
Aggregate car sales for the first two months of the year grew by 18.6% compared to 2024, from 58,084 to 68,871. Reflecting February’s numbers, year-to-date sales of light and extra-heavy commercials were down but sales of medium and heavy vehicles were well ahead.
Brandon Cohen, chair of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association, suggested February’s strong car demand could have benefited from consumer fears of a hike in VAT — the main cause of the postponed budget.
“Another reason for the surge in new-car buying could have been that February is the end of a tax year for many companies, and those who still have money in their budgets tend to buy before the end of this period,” Cohen said.
The immediate strength of the new-vehicle market was not reflected in exports.
After a strong start to the year in January, February exports were 8.6% weaker than those of a year earlier, down from 37,934 to 34,656. For the first two months of 2025, however, they were 3.2% ahead of shipments at the same stage last year — up from 57,479 to 59,303.
Mabasa said that “weaker demand and lingering trade-policy uncertainties” — particularly in the US where SA’s future
duty-free participation in the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) is uncertain — is weighing on exports.
“While global demand for SA-built models remains structurally strong, the decline in February’s export performance underscores the need to navigate shifting trade dynamics carefully,” he said.
Update: March 3 2025
This story has been updated with new information and comment.
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