Experts warned Tuesday that a looming avian influenza (bird flu) crisis demands urgent action, citing crippling losses in the poultry sector, rising food insecurity and the threat of a pandemic.
They also accused the government of dragging its feet on the threat.
Speaking at the webinar on the economic and health risks on a possible outbreak, the experts painted a grim picture of the potential crisis. They warned that policy inaction, trade disruptions and impractical regulations were leaving the industry vulnerable to another outbreak.
The R65bn poultry sector — SA’s second-largest agricultural industry — provides nearly 58,000 jobs along the value chain and is a vital source of affordable protein for millions of households.
The country faced its most severe bird flu outbreak in 2023, resulting in the loss of millions of birds and hundreds of jobs.
Often dismissed as a disease that affects only birds, avian influenza has shown its ability to jump species, infecting poultry, dogs, cats, cattle and even humans.
The real concern, the experts said, was the potential for the virus to mutate into a strain that spreads between humans, creating conditions for another devastating pandemic.
Professor Robert Bragg, a virologist specialising in biosecurity, warned that while the virus has already infected humans, its further mutation is a ticking time bomb.
“At the moment, there are about 1,000 dairy farms in the US that are positive for avian influenza. The next step is, it’s got to spread to humans.”
This has already happened, he warned, with “about 70 cases and one fatality.”
Given that avian flu is airborne, he cautioned, rapid human-to-human transmission could lead to a global pandemic.
“When a virus crosses the species barrier, it normally becomes more pathogenic, and then if it makes its way into humans, we potentially have a major pandemic on our hands.'
“Epidemiologists have stated that we’re about 30 years overdue for the next influenza pandemic, so we are waiting… disease X is probably going to be influenza,” he said.
The SA Poultry Association (Sapa) has raised concerns that wild birds migrating from Europe could trigger another outbreak.
Bragg said mass vaccination was the most effective solution, urging it to be prioritised immediately.
Despite the R9.5bn in damages from the 2023 outbreak, the industry remains highly vulnerable. While vaccines for some strains have been approved, farmers face at least another year’s wait for an H7 vaccine, leaving millions of birds exposed, Sapa previously said.
Strict biosecurity regulations have made vaccination virtually impossible, as no commercial farms now meet the criteria set by the department of agriculture.
The government’s decision not to compensate farmers for millions of birds culled in 2023 has left small-scale producers financially crippled.
Authorities have relied on import rebates, which industry leaders say have undercut local farmers and worsened financial pressures.
The economic fallout from bird flu has already driven up food prices, with egg prices soaring over 30% due to supply shortages, Sapa said in an earlier statement.
“The recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8 and H7 strains) have led to the culling of millions of birds (7.5-million chickens). This represents about 20-30% of the total chicken stock in the country,” Dr Takalani Mpofu, a senior lecturer at the Tshwane University of Technology, told the webinar audience on Tuesday.
Major producers such as Astral Foods reported operating losses of R621m, while exports stalled as international markets banned SA poultry from affected regions, he said.
The crisis has hit small-scale farmers the hardest. Without financial backing to recover from mass culling, many have been forced out of business, Mpofu said.
But he noted that the economic impact extends beyond farmers, as hundreds of workers lost their jobs, and informal traders — who rely on poultry sales — also suffered.
With wild birds migrating from Europe carrying the risk of another outbreak, the industry is running out of time.
The experts outlined urgent actions they want the government to take, including the implementation of an urgent government-backed vaccination programme to prevent future outbreaks and to provide financial relief for farmers affected by mandatory culling.
The department of agriculture, land reform & rural development responded to Business Day’s enquiry: “The department has started way before and as far back as 2023 to develop and consult the industry. We are ready to vaccinate those farms that adhere to the ‘protocol’.
“The department encourages biosecurity on farms as the main means to prevent contact between wild birds and poultry and to prevent lateral spread to other poultry properties in the event of an outbreak, this being enshrined in the responsibility of owners and managers of animals in terms of Section 11 of the Animal Diseases Act 1984 (Act no 35 of 84),” it said, adding that these measures include all infected and in-contact chickens are destroyed by the responsible person under official supervision.
The department said it has also signed into effect a protocol for vaccination of poultry “under very specific conditions that are designed to prevent inadvertent spread of the disease by vaccinated animals.”
“The poultry industry did make minister (John) Steenhuisen aware of its concerns regarding the protocol.
“Minister Steenhuisen met with the officials in the department and requested that they engage with Sapa to refine some measures to come up with a protocol that is practically implementable and workable while ensuring early detection and managing the outbreak should a farm be infected.”
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