The week will provide important clues about the state of the SA consumer at the start of 2025, as well as insight into producer inflation and employment trends.
On Monday, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) will release its Retail Trade Survey, which includes results from the wholesale sector and vehicle dealers.
This will be followed by the FNB/BER consumer confidence index (CCI) for the first quarter on Tuesday. The CCI provides insight into consumers’ willingness to spend. Recent policy developments — including higher taxes as proposed by the new budget and the Reserve Bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold — have dampened their ability to spend, said Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the BER.
The CCI edged down to minus 6 in the last quarter of 2024 from minus 5 in the third quarter, which was the highest since the first half of 2019.
However, IJssel de Schepper noted “at minus 6, it was still the best festive-reading print since 2019”.
Stats SA will publish February’s producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, with expectations for a slight pickup in annual inflation.
The BER expects annual headline PPI to rise from 1.1% in January to about 1.7% in February.
Nedbank economists are slightly more conservative, forecasting PPI at 1.4% in February, driven mainly by food and fuel prices.
They expect food inflation to have accelerated to 4.8% from 4.5%, while deflation in petroleum-related products is expected to moderate to about minus 2% from minus 4.7%, due to a weaker rand and marginal increases in global oil prices.
“Prices of chemicals, rubber and plastic products are also expected to have accelerated slightly,” the bank’s economists said.
The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for the fourth quarter of 2024 will also be released on Thursday, offering further insight into labour market conditions heading into 2025.
The QES provides an estimate of nonagricultural formal employment and income trends in the country.
According to the third quarter’s QES data, 133,000 jobs were shed, pulling the level of employment down to 10.62-million jobs from 10.74-million in June.
This week’s release also follows Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey released earlier this month.
According to the latest survey, SA’s official unemployment rate fell by 0.2 of a percentage point to 31.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from the previous three-month period, with 132,000 jobs created.
Finally, the Reserve Bank will publish its Quarterly Bulletin on Thursday that will provide updates on financial account flows, household balance sheets and the broader economic environment.
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