SA’s economic data calendar will be relatively light this week, but important nonetheless, with attention focused on February mining production and retail trade sales — two key indicators of early economic activity in 2025.
On Tuesday, the SA Reserve Bank will publish the first edition of its 2025 monetary policy review (MPR).
The MPR provides an in-depth look at the Bank’s inflation outlook, risk assessments, and how it evaluates the stance of monetary policy in a shifting economic environment.
The Bank left the repo rate unchanged at 7.5% during its March 2025 meeting. While headline inflation remains contained, it has edged higher in recent months, driven by rising services inflation, even as goods inflation remains subdued.
VAT hikes and CPI reweighting affected the outlook, but were partially offset by lower fuel prices and easing electricity tariffs.
Inflation held steady at 3.2% in February. The Bank forecasts headline inflation to average 3.6% in 2025, rising to 4.5% in 2026.
On the growth front, the economy expanded by only 0.6% in 2024.
On Wednesday, Stats SA will release February retail trade figures, after a strong start to the year. In January, sales rose by a notable 7.0% year on year, and by 1.2% month on month, driven by improved real incomes and a temporary lift from early two-pot pension withdrawals.
Average nominal take-home pay rose 16.3% year on year to R18,098 in January, according to January’s BankservAfrica’s take-home pay index report.
Investec economist Lara Hodes expects retail activity to remain buoyant, projecting a 6.4% year-on-year increase in February.
“According to the latest BER [Bureau for Economic Research] retail survey results for Q1.25, sentiment among retailers was at 50, above its long-term average,” she noted.
“The reduction of load-shedding-related costs has aided retailers, while consumers have benefited from a lower inflationary environment, boosting real incomes as well as monetary easing, with further interest rate cuts anticipated later in the year.”
Nedbank economists also expect sales to have held up well, though moderating slightly to 5.6% in February.
“The boost likely came from low inflation and firmer consumer confidence after the Reserve Bank reduced interest rates by another 25 basis points in January.”
February mining production data is due for release on Tuesday.
According to FNB, January saw a 2.7% year-on-year contraction, reflecting steep declines in iron ore (a 15.1% fall), coal (a 4.4% fall) and platinum group metals (a 3.8% fall). Seasonally adjusted output was down 1.2% month on month, compounding December’s 3.7% drop.
However, February is expected to show some improvement.
Nedbank forecasts a 1.0% year-on-year expansion, citing base effects and reduced load-shedding compared to the same time last year.
Hodes expects a smaller annual decline of 2.4%, noting that commodity prices have improved.
“Both the World Bank’s metals and minerals index and precious metals index increased in February. The precious metals index has climbed significantly, buoyed by gold prices, which have soared to all-time highs as a safe-haven investment,” she said.
Beyond data, the political backdrop will remain a key focus this week. With internal debates ongoing, observers are watching for new signals about the DA future in the government of national unity.
“The outcome of the court case about the constitutionality of the VAT increase — which may come next week — could prove to be a pivotal moment in that regard,” the BER said.
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