It is a short week, domestically anchored by the release of March inflation data, with the consumer and producer price indices scheduled for publication.
March’s consumer price index (CPI) figures, scheduled for release on Wednesday, are expected to show a marginal easing in headline inflation, driven primarily by lower fuel prices.
Nedbank economists forecast headline inflation to edge down to 3.1% year on year, after holding steady at 3.2% in January and February.
The main drag is expected to come from fuel prices, with the petrol price falling 0.3% month on month in March, reversing a sharp 3.8% increase in February. This pushed the year-on-year decline in petrol prices to minus 13.9%, compared with minus 8.9% previously.
According to Nedbank, the moderation in fuel costs reflects a firmer rand, which appreciated 1.9% against the dollar, outweighing a small rise in Brent crude oil prices. On an annual basis, oil prices fell 10.4%, while the rand gained 2.7% year on year, adding further downward pressure on fuel-linked costs.
While fuel helped cool inflation, food prices are expected to continue rising off a low base, providing some offset.
Nedbank economists noted that March was also a survey month for housing-related costs, such as actual rentals and owners’ equivalent rent, which are expected to ease slightly in line with lower interest rates.
However, this is likely to be offset by modest increases in domestic service prices, transport fares and vehicle insurance premiums, which were also surveyed during the month.
Producer price inflation (PPI) for March, due on Thursday, is expected to show a slight deceleration.
Nedbank expects PPI to ease to 0.9% year on year, down from 1.0% in February. The main drag will again come from lower petrol and diesel prices, the bank said.
A highlight on the international calendar this week is the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington, DC, on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings.
This high-level gathering falls under the Finance Track of SA’s G20 presidency, and will bring together G20 member countries, invited nations and international organisations to deliberate on pressing global economic challenges, financial stability risks and policies to support sustainable economic growth.
The Finance Track is co-chaired by finance minister Enoch Godongwana and Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago, and deals with strategic macroeconomic and financial issues.
A series of events and publications will unfold throughout the week, including:
- On Tuesday, the IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook, providing updated global and country-specific forecasts, including for SA.
- Wednesday will see the publication of the IMF’s fiscal monitor, a comprehensive analysis of global public finance trends, fiscal policy developments, and medium-term projections.
- Godongwana and Kganyago will host a G20 press conference on Thursday, followed by the IMF debate on the global economy later that evening (SA time).
- On Friday, attention will shift to the IMF Africa department press conference, as well as a panel discussion on monetary policy in emerging markets.
In the previous World Economic Outlook published in January, the IMF projected global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026 — below the 2000-19 historical average of 3.7% — with stronger growth expectations for the US offsetting downward revisions in other major economies.
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