SA recorded a bigger-than-expected preliminary trade surplus of R24.8bn in March, according to data released by the SA Revenue Service on Wednesday.
The surplus resulted from exports worth R172.5bn and imports amounting to R147.7bn, including trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN).
Nedbank economists had forecast the surplus would narrow to R14.9bn in March, down from R20.9bn in February, while Investec economist Lara Hodes expected would remain at about R18bn.
Compared with February, exports rose by R9.4bn (5.7%), while imports increased by R4.5bn (3.2%), driven in the main by coal, iron ores and concentrates, and manganese ores and concentrates. Import growth was driven by increased purchases of crude oil, passenger vehicles and original equipment components.
“The rise in the value of coal, iron ore and manganese exports has an important common denominator. They are all bulk commodities that rely heavily on efficient rail transport from Transnet,” Hugo Pienaar, chief economist at Minerals Council SA, told Business Day.
“Our members have indicated that Transnet’s rail performance improved in March. At least in part, this was probably driven by Transnet chasing higher volumes in March as a last push to meet the targets set for the 2024/25 financial year.”
Pienaar said higher exports of manganese also reflected a notable rise in domestic production in the first quarter of 2025 as the metal’s price recovered.
“The higher prices encouraged increased road transportation in the manganese sector, which supported higher export volumes,” Pienaar added
The data was supported by the results of the Absa Manufacturing PMI survey of March, which indicated that “export sales showed significant gains”, Hodes said.
“Indeed, globally, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI survey results for March revealed that factory output in the Eurozone (a key trading partner) rose for the first time in two years as companies reported improving domestic demand,” she said.
On an annual basis, exports rose by 4.5% from R165.1bn in March 2024, while imports declined by 3.5% from R153.1bn, resulting in an improvement in the trade balance year on year.
The cumulative trade balance for the first quarter of 2025 was a surplus of R27.8bn, slightly higher than the R26.2bn recorded over the same period in 2024. However, February’s surplus was revised down from R20.9bn to R19.9bn due to routine vouchers of correction — forms used to correct errors or omissions in a customs declaration.
Trade with BELN countries produced a surplus of R11.4bn, supported by R17.2bn in exports and R5.8bn in imports. Excluding BELN, SA recorded a R13.4bn surplus with the rest of the world, based on R155.3bn in exports and R141.9bn in imports.
The biggest gains in exports were to Europe and Africa. While trade with Asia remained the biggest by volume but continued to reflect a deficit. Imports from the Americas increased, shifting the trade balance with the region into negative territory.
“Globally, however, heightened levels of uncertainty around trade tariffs persists weighing on global trade and growth prospects,” Hodes said.
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