Another subdued economic calendar awaits this week, with Eskom developments, S&P Global’s SA purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and manufacturing data releases being the key events to watch.
Eskom will on Monday announce its plans for power supply during the coming winter.
While it has made progress with its generation recovery plan and as a result reduced load-shedding from the disastrous levels seen in 2023, demand again outstripped supply early in 2025.
However, energy expert Chris Yelland was “cautiously optimistic” about the outlook.
He said contrary to popular belief, winter was not necessarily the worst period for power supply.
“In fact, some of the worst load-shedding we have had has been in the middle of summer. The very first stage 6 load-shedding we had happened in December 2019, in the middle of summer.”
“Many of the large industrial energy-intensive users, especially the smelters, shut down during June, July and August because the price of electricity is just too expensive to operate.”
He said this also does not mean there will not be load-shedding, as there may be periods of intermittent load-shedding, “but I don’t expect a return to the severe load-shedding that we had in the past”.
Energy expert Tshepo Kgadima was less optimistic.
“We can expect Eskom to announce and confirm that they will be reverting to the ‘André de Ruyter diesel burning days’ in order to avert costlier load-shedding as well as to meet the anticipated increased peak-periods winter demand,” he said.
“Eskom is still only generating baseload electricity from under 50% of its installed coal-fired and nuclear capacity. This is telling.”
On Tuesday, ratings agency S&P Global is expected to release its SA PMI reading for April. The index, which measures private sector activity, fell to 48.3 in March from 49.0 in February — its second-lowest level since July 2023 — and remained below the neutral 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.
Also on Tuesday, Business Unity SA (Busa), in partnership with the Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade (Tracit), will launch the Tracit SA Illicit Economy 2.0 report. The report examines the scale, complexity and socioeconomic consequences of illicit trade in SA and outlines urgent steps needed to combat its spread.
The event will bring together senior government officials, law enforcement leaders, private sector experts and policymakers to unpack the findings and drive a shared response.
Stats SA’s manufacturing data for March is due on Thursday.
Nedbank economists forecast a reversal in manufacturing production based on fewer public holidays compared with last year and the weak base. “Our forecast is for growth of 2.4% year on year from minus 3.2% the previous month. Despite the relative reprieve in load-shedding and port challenges, the operating environment remains challenging.”
On Wednesday, the National Treasury is holding a technical briefing on Operation Vulindlela ahead of the official launch of the second phase of this initiative.
Operation Vulindlela is a joint initiative of the presidency and the Treasury to drive the implementation of structural reforms aimed at achieving more rapid and inclusive economic growth.
In March, the cabinet approved the focus areas and priorities for the second phase of Operation Vulindlela.
President Cyril Ramaphosa will officially launch the second phase on Wednesday afternoon.
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