SA’s 2025 summer crop outlook has strengthened further, with the third production forecast from the crop estimates committee showing an uptick in expected maize output and sorghum.
Other key crops such as sunflowers, soya beans and dry beans saw modest downward revisions, however.
Wandile Sihlobo, Agricultural Business Chamber chief economist, said that while there are seven monthly estimates still to come “by the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the accuracy of the data”.
The total commercial maize crop is forecast at 14.66-million tonnes, up 0.72% from the previous estimate and a notable 14.12% higher than last season’s harvest of 12.85-million tonnes. This improvement is driven by stronger-than-expected yields, particularly in Mpumalanga and the Free State.
“Indeed, this is a mild uptick, but it remains crucial at a time when some are worried that we might see a downward revision of the crop due to the excessive rains,” Sihlobo said.
White maize is expected to reach 7.76-million tonnes, up 0.80% from last month, while yellow maize is forecast to rise 0.64% to 6.91-million tonnes. The total area planted to maize remains unchanged at 2.6-million hectares, with yields averaging
5.65-tonnes per hectare.
“Importantly, these forecasts are well above SA’s annual maize needs of about 11.8-million tonnes, which implies that SA will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize,” Sihlobo said.
While maize leads the upward momentum, sorghum production is also expected to rise by 0.39% to 137,970 tonnes.
However, other summer crops saw downward adjustments:
- Sunflower seeds: forecast down by 3.6% to 742,800 tonnes.
- Soya beans: revised down by 2.47% to 2.33-million tonnes, still well above last year’s crop.
- Groundnuts: down by 3.49% to 64,595 tonnes.
- Dry beans: saw the largest cut, down 10.72% to 70,540 tonnes.
Despite these revisions, the overall summer crop estimate for 2025 stands at 18.01-million tonnes, essentially flat compared to March but still 16% higher than the 2024 season.
The noncommercial maize sector also showed gains. Maize production in this segment is forecast at 621,500 tonnes, 8.09% higher than last season, supported by a 3.17% increase in planted area.
The crop estimates committee noted about 46.75% of the maize produced in the noncommercial sector is planted in the Eastern Cape, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 20.88% and then Limpopo with 20.65%.
“The excessive rains of the past few weeks likely caused some quality damage in some regions. We will learn more about its extent when the harvest gains momentum in the coming weeks and months,” Sihlobo said, adding that, from a consumer perspective, the crop quality issues in a few regions are not a big concern.
“We continue to observe generally softening commodity prices, driven by the expected large harvest, which bodes well for a comforting food inflation path in the year’s second half.”
Alongside the third summer crop forecast, the committee also published 2025’s planned winter crops.
Early indications show farmers plan to increase the wheat area by 1.56% to 513,200ha, with the Western Cape accounting for 72% of this total.
Barley is expected to decline by 7.6%, while canola (+0.45%), cereal oats (+11.35%), and sweet lupines (+29.38%) are all projected to rise modestly. These figures are based on farmer surveys conducted in mid-April and reflect planting decisions in progress.
The fourth production forecast for summer crops is due to be released on May 27, incorporating more objective yield data from the Free State and the North West, which could influence the final maize figures.
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