This week is a significant one for SA’s domestic data calendar.
Real GDP growth for 2025’s first quarter, due for release on Tuesday, is expected to come in flat or marginally positive.
“Consensus sees a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter expansion after the 0.6% growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter. We are a touch below consensus at 0.1%,” said Lisette IJssel de Schepper of the Bureau for Economic Research.
Nedbank economists forecast no quarter-on-quarter growth, noting that gains in agriculture were offset by contractions in mining, manufacturing, construction and trade.
“Agriculture will probably be the star performer. In contrast, mining, manufacturing, electricity, construction and trade activity relapsed, still held back by a challenging operating environment, aggravated by persistent inefficiencies in essential economic infrastructure and the more substantial base in the fourth quarter,” they said.
Khumbulani Kunene, an investment analyst at FNB Wealth and Investments, concurred, saying FNB forecast a quarterly GDP contraction of 0.1% for the first quarter, “reflecting softer economic activity in higher-weighted sectors such as mining, manufacturing and trade”.
The Absa manufacturing PMI for May will be released on Monday and is likely to remain in contractionary territory.
April’s reading declined to 44.7, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline, as respondents flagged deteriorating demand, supply bottlenecks, and renewed global trade frictions.
“The PMI — and actual manufacturing activity — have been underwhelming in 2025 so far,” IJssel de Schepper said.
Monday’s vehicle sales data from the automotive business council Naamsa is likely to show further year-on-year growth.
IJssel de Schepper noted local vehicle sales expanded well from a low base in April, though exports struggled.
Nedbank economists projected a strong 20.4% year-on-year rise in May, after April’s 11.9% increase, aided by base effects and greater affordability from declining interest rates and lower prices.
A key insight into business sentiment during the second quarter will come with the release of the RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) on Wednesday.
“The BCI stayed unchanged at 45 index points in the first quarter as a surge in confidence of new vehicle dealers cancelled out a decline in the other industries,” IJssel de Schepper said.
“Confidence has a good track record with private fixed investment over time, with higher confidence pointing to increased investment and vice versa.”
On Wednesday, the S&P Global SA PMI will offer a broader gauge of business sentiment.
The index improved to 50 in April from 48.3 in March, indicating no further deterioration in private sector activity and breaking a four-month streak of contraction.
This stabilisation was supported by improved output and new order levels.
Wednesday also marks the annual S&P Global Ratings SA Conference, where discussions will span geopolitical dynamics, trade and tariff policy, infrastructure, climate finance and private credit markets.
On Thursday, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will launch its 2025 Economic Survey of SA.
This internationally peer-reviewed assessment analyses macroeconomic trends, tracks progress on structural reforms, and identifies key policy challenges.
It benchmarks SA’s performance against that of OECD and G20 countries, offering policy recommendations to support the country’s ongoing reform agenda.
The latest edition includes a special chapter on SA’s electricity sector and the green transition.
The Reserve Bank will release its first quarter current account data on Thursday. Nedbank economists expected a wider deficit of about 0.8% of GDP, up from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
“A smaller trade surplus will mainly drive the wider deficit as exports slow slightly and imports increase,” they said.
According to Kunene, the strength in gold prices and other safe-haven commodities, versus softer oil prices, has remained supportive to SA’s terms of trade in the near term.
“Over the medium term, the unwinding of logistical constraints and stronger trade relations will be important for export growth,” he said.
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