SA posted a preliminary trade surplus of R14.1bn in April, a notable decline from the downwardly revised R22.6bn surplus recorded in March, according to data released by the SA Revenue Service on Friday.
This means SA still exported more goods than it imported in April, but the surplus was smaller than in March, as exports dropped and imports rose.
“Globally, heightened levels of uncertainty around tariffs persists, weighing on trade and growth prospects,” Investec economist Lara Hodes said.
The surplus was the result of exports worth R166.2bn and imports of R152.1bn, inclusive of trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia.
“This is in line with results of the April Absa manufacturing PMI survey which indicated that the index tracking export sales returned to contractionary levels,” Hdes said.
The trade balance narrowed more than expected. Nedbank forecast a trade surplus of R20bn.
Exports fell by R4.3bn (minus 2.5%) from March, weighed down by lower shipments of grapes, gold, iron ore and concentrates.
“Indeed, despite the surge in the gold price as a safe-haven investment, amid a highly uncertain global environment, production domestically continues to face a number of constraints,” Hodes said.
At the same time, imports rose by R4.3bn (2.9%), driven by increased purchases of original equipment components, aircraft and diamonds.
Compared with April 2024, export values were 4.0% lower, while imports dropped 4.2%. The year-to-date trade surplus stood at R39.7bn, slightly below the R40.6bn recorded during the same period last year.
Excluding the Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia trade, SA’s surplus with the rest of the world was R3.3bn in April, down from R13.4bn in March. This was due to exports of R149.7bn and imports of R146.4bn. Exports to the rest of the world declined R3.6bn (minus 2.4%), while imports increased R4.4bn (3.1%).
Trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia added R10.8bn to the surplus in April, as exports of R16.5bn far exceeded imports of R5.7bn.
“Though supply-side constraints have eased, they continue to impact the country’s trade balances via containing exports, while lower import volumes reflect soft domestic demand,” Oxford Economics chief economist Jee-A van der Linde said.
“We argue that SA’s existing supply-side constraints will worsen the impact of US tariffs on domestic exporters, while a negative global demand shock coming from reduced global trade has already started to drive down international commodity prices.”
The March trade surplus was revised down from R24.8bn to R22.6bn due to routine vouchers of correction.
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