Average nominal take-home pay dropped slightly in May but remained higher than a year ago, amid global shocks that have led to a pause in investment decisions and low confidence levels among investors and households.
According to the latest BankservAfrica Take-home Pay Index (BTPI), nominal average take-home pay declined to R17,296 in May 2025, 1.3% lower compared to April’s R17,532 but still notably above the R15,903 level a year earlier.
The BTPI tracks salary payments to about 3.8-million employees in SA’s formal economy.
“2025 has turned out to be a volatile year with multiple global shocks accompanied by a good dose of local challenges,” the payments clearing house noted in a statement.
“Downward revisions to both global and local economic growth prospects are the order of the day and are fuelling low confidence levels and a pause on investment decisions.
“These outcomes are detrimental to economic activity, as investors and households hold back on spending decisions until more clarity is forthcoming. This could have a negative impact on employment and earnings prospects of salary earners in SA in coming months.”
Adjusted for inflation, real take-home moderated by 1.1% month on month to R14,832 in May 2025, compared to R15,003 in April, but is still 5.8% up on year-ago levels.
International oil price spikes due to Middle East conflict could lead to higher CPI [consumer inflation], potentially reaching 5% by year-end and averaging 3.6% for 2025.
The average for 2025 is now forecast at 3.6%. This was previously 3.4% compared to the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) latest view of 3.2%, which is lower than the 4.4% recorded in 2024.
“The significant moderation in consumer inflation during 2024 has had a positive impact on the purchasing power of salary earners, and the scenario is continuing into 2025, with the latest headline CPI figure at only 2.8% for May 2025,” the BTPI said.
“While inflation remains well contained at this stage, the recent spike in the international oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, could result in higher-than-expected headline CPI in coming months and also into 2026, as the base of forecasting has lifted. However, extreme volatility in international energy markets makes it difficult to determine the precise impact on SA fuel prices.
“Any further monetary loosening looks unlikely at this stage, in the light of the intensifying Middle East conflict and the resultant negative impact on local fuel prices.”
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