A glimpse into future prospects for the economy will emerge on Tuesday with the release of Absa’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for June.
The PMI is based on surveys of purchasing managers’ activities and serves as a forward-looking indicator of economic growth or contraction, with readings above 50 suggesting expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.
The Absa PMI fell to 43.1 in May, marking the seventh consecutive month of contraction in factory activity and the sharpest decline since April 2020, according to Trading Economics. Trade disruptions, policy uncertainty and logistical challenges contributed to the decline.
Exports continued to weaken in May with the manufacturing sector globally remaining in the doldrums, according to the results of the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI survey results.
Investec economist Lara Hodes said the Absa manufacturing PMI index is forecast to have remained in contractionary territory in June, underpinned by a lacklustre domestic economy which continues to face a number of structural challenges, while globally manufacturing conditions remain subdued weighing on export potential.
The SP Global SA PMI for June, which considers the broader private sector, is due for release on Thursday.
Also on Tuesday, automotive business council Naamsa will publish June vehicle sales data. Bureau for Economic Research (BER) economist Tracey-Lee Solomon noted that new-vehicle sales have been strong this year and June sales may have benefited from the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut in late May and the recovery in the FNB/BER consumer confidence index in the second quarter, which she said is a good indicator of consumers’ willingness to spend.
May’s new-vehicle market registered 45,308 sales against the 37,139 sold in the same month last year. It was the eighth month in a row that sales outperformed those of a year earlier. After five months of 2025, the market is 12.6% ahead of the same stage of 2024, up from 205,771 to 231,719 units.
On Monday the SA Revenue Service will release preliminary trade statistics for May. SA recorded a preliminary trade surplus of R14.1bn in April 2025, attributable to exports of R166.2bn and imports of R152.1bn, inclusive of trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia.
On a month-on-month basis, exports decreased by R4.3bn
(minus 2.5%) from R170.5bn to R166.2bn between March and April 2025, while imports increased by R4.3bn (2.9%) from R147.8bn to R152.1bn over the same period.
Also on Monday, the National Treasury will release a report on revenue, expenditure and borrowings at end-May and the Bank will release its 2025 financial statements.
On Wednesday, the BER will release its inflation expectations survey for the second quarter, an important indicator for the Bank.
“The Reserve Bank has spoken about its preference to lower its inflation target to 3% and a decline in inflation expectations would aid in achieving that goal,” Solomon said.
Goldman Sachs economists expect the average two-year ahead inflation expectations to decline from 4.7% in the first quarter to 4.5% in the second quarter. The decline mainly reflects a fall in analysts’ expectations, while the two-year ahead inflation expectations of businesses and trade unions are expected to remain unchanged from the first quarter.
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