SA vehicle exports to the US collapsed almost 82% in the first half of the year. Since April, when President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported into the US, SA exports have plunged more than 87%.
Local motor industry association Naamsa said that in the first three months of the year, SA motor companies shipped 1,703 cars and light commercial vehicles to the US. That was 75.1% fewer than the 6,840 in the same period of 2024.
Between April and June, exports numbered 1,172 — 87.4% fewer than the 9,272 in the same three months of 2024. For the first half of 2025, therefore, aggregate exports fell 82%, from 16,112 to 2,875. Almost all of those, said Naamsa, were C-Class cars built by Mercedes-Benz SA (MBSA) at its assembly plant in East London.
There were also a handful of Ford Ranger bakkies built in Silverton, Tshwane, by Ford Southern Africa. BMW SA, for whom the US was once an important market, has sold no vehicles there in 2025. When the company’s Rosslyn, Tshwane, assembly plant began building the new X3 sports utility vehicle last October, the company intended 20% of production to go to the US. Rosslyn is one of three BMW plants worldwide to build the X3 but the only one to make plug-in, hybrid-electric versions.
Imbalance
There is virtually no demand for these in the US and, while Rosslyn also makes petrol and diesel X3s, the German parent company subsequently decided US demand for these would be met from the Spartanburg plant in South Carolina. MBSA, which makes petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid C-Class cars, recently suspended production in East London for several weeks, in response to reduced demand for its products.
In June 2024 it announced plans to shed 700 jobs for the same reason. The company has been at pains to explain that production suspensions such as the present one, which will end on July 31, are commonplace in the motor industry but the loss of US sales has undoubtedly contributed to a production imbalance. It also insists no more jobs are at risk and that rumours of possible disinvestment from SA are untrue.
An Eastern Cape politician was quoted last week as saying that MBSA executives had hinted at disinvestment but MBSA told Business Day: “MBSA’s 67-year history in the country demonstrates our commitment to running a sustainable business in the country and to our valued stakeholders, suppliers, employees, customers and partners here. We wish to clarify that no decision has been made that Mercedes-Benz will exit SA.”
Despite the drop in SA vehicle exports to the US, overall year-on-year exports have improved. By end-June, they were 2.6% ahead of 2024, up from 190,662 to 195,549. This was due mainly to a sharp rise in European demand for SA bakkies.
However, Naamsa CEO Mikel Mabasa said calls for SA motor companies to compensate for lost US sales by switching focus to other markets, are not always realistic. Motor industries worldwide, faced with the loss of US sales because of the 25% tariffs, all have the same idea.
SA already exports vehicles to 100 countries, “which means that finding new export markets is not that easy, especially as other countries are doing the exact same thing”. Despite indications to the contrary, he still hopes that SA can strike a deal with the US to bypass the 25% tariff.
“We remain optimistic that our government’s proposed trade deal, including for the duty-free exports of 40,000 vehicles per annum, which represents about 0.5% of US imports of 7.68-million units in 2024, will result in a mutually beneficial trade deal between the US and SA,” Mabasa said.
For Renai Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers (Naacam), any deal cannot come soon enough. The components sector has lost 4,000 jobs in two years because of company closures and cutbacks caused by stagnant local and export vehicle sales, and the US situation will only make things worse. Companies supplying assembly-line components to SA vehicle manufacturers are already suffering because of lost US vehicle exports.
Very serious
While the US has postponed the imposition of tariffs on components used in US vehicle manufacture, to give US motor companies time to find local alternatives, Moothilal said: “The potential long-term impact is very serious. It will largely depend on the US’s ability to domestically supply [SA] products affected by the tariffs.
“If US supply remains limited, demand may eventually return but, if not, SA exporters could face lasting market loss and weakened global competitiveness... to prevent long-term injury to the sector, it is critical that SA secures a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US.”
Moothilal notes that SA exported R28.7bn of automotive products to the US in 2024. Of that, R4.4bn was components used in US vehicle production. The US was SA’s third-largest export destination for automotive goods, accounting for 10.7% of total exports.
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