SA’s strong 2024/25 harvest is expected to ease pressure on food prices and bring relief to consumers, said an agricultural economist.
Commenting on the Crop Estimates Committee’s (CEC) sixth production forecast, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said: “This ample harvest will likely add downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.”
The total summer grains and oilseed harvest is now estimated at 18.74-million tonnes, up 2% from June’s forecast and 21% higher than last season’s drought-hit output.
The increase reflects solid annual gains across all major crops, supported by favourable rainfall and timely plantings in key production regions.
Last week, consumer food price inflation accelerated to the highest level in 16 months, underpinned mainly by the recent increases in the meat, oils and fats, and vegetable prices.
“The recent surge in maize prices was linked to the slow harvest process and quality issues, but that should be short lived,” Sihlobo said.
“Overall, we expect food price inflation to moderate in the coming months, as the benefits of ample domestic grains and an expected decent fruit harvest continue to enter the market.”
According to the CEC’s latest data, the 2025 commercial maize crop is now estimated at 15.03-million tonnes, a 2% increase from the previous forecast and 17% higher than last season’s drought-affected harvest.
The three main maize producing areas — Free State, Mpumalanga and North West — are expected to produce 81% of this year’s crop.
The breakdown shows white maize at 7.74-million tonnes and yellow maize at 7.30-million tonnes, reflecting year-on-year increases of 28% and 7%, respectively. These gains are especially significant considering maize is SA’s most widely consumed staple as well as a key input in livestock feed.
The total maize area planted this year is estimated at 2.6-million hectares, only marginally lower than the previous year, but yielding a significantly higher output thanks to improved crop conditions.
“Importantly, these forecasts are well above SA’s annual maize needs of approximately 12-million tonnes, implying that SA will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize,” Sihlobo said.
Among other summer crops, soybean production is forecast at 2.7-million tonnes, up 47% from last year’s harvest and revised upwards by nearly 3% from the fifth estimate. Sunflower seed, however, is slightly down by 2.7% from the previous forecast, while groundnuts dropped by 3.3%.
This ample harvest will likely add downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation
— Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz chief economist
Smaller crops like sorghum and dry beans remained unchanged from earlier forecasts.
“In essence, SA is experiencing a recovery season for its grains and oilseeds production, although some areas may face quality challenges, particularly white maize,” Sihlobo said.
SA Canegrowers also reported a better harvest than last year (which was the lowest crop in eight seasons), thanks to better rainfall. The current estimate for the 2025 season stands at 17.7-million tonnes of sugar cane, up from 16.47-million tonnes in the previous year.
The organisation represents 24,000 small-scale and 1,200 large-scale sugar cane growers in the country.
However, the imminent US tariffs and SA’s own import duties are casting a shadow over these gains.
“While this recovery in yield is welcome news, the industry’s economic outlook remains under serious threat due to delays in adjusting SA’s import tariff, the flood of cheap imports into the country and the looming 30% tariff by the US on SA sugar exports,” SA Canegrowers said in a statement, with chairperson Higgins Mdluli adding that the delay in adjusting SA’s tariffs was “undermining the competitiveness of local producers”.
SA was experiencing a surge in deep-sea sugar imports, the organisation said.
“Much of this imported sugar is heavily subsidised in its country of origin, arriving in SA at a price far below local production costs undercutting local growers’ sugar cane revenue and their financial sustainability,” SA Canegrowers said in its statement.
A similar situation in 2017/18 and 2018/19 forced the SA sugar industry to export large volumes into a highly distorted global market, resulting in significant financial losses, the organisation said.
“A repeat of this scenario will lead to job losses, as growers are also already facing many other threats, including the sugar tax and rising input costs.”
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.