SA’s canola crop for 2025/26 will be a record high, reinforcing the country’s status as a net exporter of the oilseed.
The crop estimates committee now forecasts the canola crop at 320,043 tonnes, a 10% increase from last season’s already strong harvest of 290,400 tonnes. “This is the largest canola crop on record,” the committee noted in its report.
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said the season had generally been fair, “with favourable rainfall in much of the Western Cape, a province that accounts for more than two-thirds of SA’s winter crops.
“In other provinces, the winter crops are mainly produced under irrigation and the favourable summer rains helped to improve the dam levels, enabling the irrigation.”
According to Sihlobo, there has been a switch from traditional winter wheat and barley to canola because of firm demand and price competitiveness. He noted that farmers planted just 17,000ha of canola in the 1998/99 season. This figure has risen more than tenfold over the past 25 years.
“Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake,” Sihlobo said.
According to the crop estimates committee, the expected canola yield for 2025/26 is 1.83 tonnes per hectare, slightly above last season.
SA is now a net canola exporter, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.
— Wandile Sihlobo
Agbiz chief economist
Despite the upbeat production figures, the season was not without its challenges.
“The big challenge for farmers in some areas of the Western Cape this year was the infestation of snails in the early stages of the season, forcing farmers to replant the crop, thus increasing the input costs,” Sihlobo said.
He also noted that higher input costs may have eroded profitability in some regions.
Yet this year’s record harvest reinforces SA’s recent emergence as a net canola exporter. “SA is now a net canola exporter, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium,” Sihlobo said.
While canola is the standout performer in this winter season, the broader crop picture shows mixed outcomes in August.
According to the committee, wheat production is estimated at 2-million tonnes, which is almost 6% more than last season’s 1.93-million tonnes, with the Western Cape still accounting for the lion’s share.
Barley output is projected at 352,675 tonnes, 5% less than the previous estimate.
Beyond the winter crops, the crop estimates committee’s seventh summer production forecast showed that SA’s summer grains and oilseed harvest is up by 4% from the July estimate to an expected 19.55-million tonnes. This marks a 26% improvement from last year, supported by good summer rainfall and adequate planting conditions.
“Although the wet conditions caused quality issues, leading to downgrades of some maize crops, this is still a strong harvest compared to last year’s El Niño-induced yield losses,” FNB agricultural economist Paul Makube said.
A breakdown of the data shows dry beans, soybeans, and sorghum posting the biggest rebounds from last year.
“The improved supply situation eases pressure on the market following the depletion of carry-over stock due to last year’s drought. Prices have responded accordingly: as of August 2025, average yellow maize has dropped by 30.6% (-R1,713 a tonne) from January levels to R3,882 a tonne, while white maize is down 36.8% (-R2,513 a tonne) at R3,996 a tonne. Similarly, soybean prices have fallen by 23.7% (-R2,253 a tonne) to R7,266.24 a tonne over the same period,” Makube said.
“This bodes well for consumers, with downward pressure on food inflation expected to continue. Livestock producers will also benefit from reduced feed costs, as maize and soybeans are major inputs in animal feed.”
Update: August 28, 2025
This story has been updated with more comments
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