Business confidence and manufacturing activity will be in focus this week as economists and markets assess whether lower interest rates and easing financial conditions are beginning to feed through to sentiment and demand.
The RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) for the third quarter, due on Wednesday, will be closely watched. In the second quarter, confidence declined by five index points to 40.
Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, said: “We have seen the implementation of 30% US tariffs, somewhat less focus on domestic political uncertainty but plenty of international turmoil. A positive for some sectors would have been the repo rate cut in July.”
She added that the Absa manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for August, due on Monday, will also help “further colour in the picture on how the SA economy fared during the third quarter”.
July’s Absa PMI returned to expansionary territory for the first time since October 2024, reaching 50.8 index points. The rise was driven by a recovery in demand.
The Week Ahead
- Absa manufacturing PMI for August
- New vehicle sales data
- No major releases; markets watch ahead of Wednesday data
- RMB/BER Q3 business confidence index
- S&P Global SA PMI; July showed slight private sector improvement
- SACUM–UK Economic Partnership Agreement awareness seminar
- B20 recommendations handover event
- Markets digest mid-week data; no major releases scheduled
New-vehicle sales data is also expected on Monday. In July, there was a 15.6% increase, driven by passenger car sales. Nedbank economists expect annual growth to ease to 13.9% in August, still reflecting “easing financial conditions due to interest rate cuts, lower debt service costs and subdued prices”.
The S&P Global SA PMI, which tracks private sector business sentiment, is expected on Wednesday. In July, the PMI inched up to 50.3, supported by a rise in new business and steady output levels. The July reading indicated only a slight improvement in overall operating conditions with output largely unchanged, but hiring and new orders showing modest gains.
Two important policy events are also scheduled. On Wednesday, the trade, industry & competition department, together with SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the British high commission, will launch the SACUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) Awareness Seminar in Johannesburg.
The event aims to highlight new export opportunities in the agriculture and automotive sectors, provide practical guidance on export regulations, standards, financing and incentive schemes, and create a platform for dialogue and peer learning among businesses, the government and trade partners.
Joburg will host the B20 Recommendations Handover Event on Thursday, marking the formal submission of proposals from more than 1,000 business leaders worldwide to the G20 presidency. The recommendations cover strategies to boost economic growth through trade, tackle unemployment, advance gender inclusivity, strengthen financial systems and improve food security — priorities intended to shape the G20’s policy agenda in the months ahead.
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