SA recorded a preliminary trade surplus of R20.3bn in July, slightly lower than June’s revised R21.0bn, as imports grew faster than exports, the SA Revenue Service (SARS) said on Friday.
The July surplus was built on exports of R184.3bn and imports of R164.0bn, inclusive of trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN).
This means SA still sold more goods abroad than it bought but the buffer narrowed compared with June.
Exports rose, led by citrus fruit, unwrought aluminium and manganese ores, yet imports climbed even more — notably petroleum oils (ex-crude), mineral/chemical fertilisers and crude oil — trimming the monthly surplus.
Month on month, exports increased by R14.5bn (8.5%), while imports rose by R15.2bn (10.2%). Compared with a year earlier, exports were up 3.1% and imports up 4.5% versus July 2024, indicating firmer two-way trade flows.
The trade surplus is supported by June’s Absa manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, “which indicates that export sales picked up markedly in July, compared to previous months, while the notable lift in new sales orders during the month suggests a much stronger recovery in demand at the start of the third quarter”, said Investec economist Lara Hodes.
“Uncertainty around the effect of tariffs remains elevated, weighing on confidence and investment potential.”
The cumulative trade balance for the first seven months of this year was a surplus of R98.9bn, below the R113.7bn recorded over the same period in 2024.
Excluding BELN, SA posted a surplus of R8.9bn with the rest of the world, from exports of R166.6bn and imports of R157.7bn. Trade with BELN itself added R11.4bn to July’s surplus, based on exports of R17.7bn and imports of R6.3bn.
SARS also revised June’s surplus down by R1.1bn due to routine vouchers of correction.
According to Hodes, the effects of the 30% tariff on US exports, which took effect on 7 August, could now be assessed with greater accuracy moving forward.
“While a significant portion of exports to the US in the form of certain critical minerals are exempt from tariffs, industries that rely heavily on US markets and those that have benefited significantly from exemptions under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) are likely to be notably effected, until new markets are established,” Hodes said.
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