SA’s exports to the US slumped 18% in the second quarter, even before the 30% tariff kicked in this August, which was far steeper than the 3% drop in shipments to the rest of the world, Absa Corporate and Investment Bank (Absa CIB) said.
However, the bank noted at its third-quarter 2025 media round-table last week that stronger world growth and favourable terms of trade may cushion some of the damage, even as the tariff sharpens the pressure in the second half of the year.
“The value of vehicles and parts exports to the US was down 53% year on year in the second quarter, having already fallen 33% in the first quarter,” Absa’s report stated.
“However, this needs to be seen in some context as these exports had almost doubled between 2022 and 2024.
“Exports of iron and steel to the US were down 32% year on year in the second quarter but exports to the rest of the world in this category were down 47% over the same period,” the report said. Exports of precious metals and stones to the US — which fell 6% year on year in the second quarter and, other than diamonds, are not subject to tariffs — also contributed to the relative weakness in overall US-bound shipments compared with the rest of the world.
The tariffs were announced by US President Donald Trump in early April under his “Liberation Day” proclamation, but the planned country-specific increases were paused until early August.
Miyelani Maluleke, senior economist and head of SA macroeconomic research at Absa CIB, noted that the data tells a complex story, with tariff effects difficult to disentangle from other global factors.
He stressed that conditions, while still challenging, look more favourable than they did earlier this year. “If we think about where we are right now, as SA — compared to where we were in April — I think some things are absolutely looking a little bit better.”
One bright spot, Maluleke said, is the resilience of the global economy. “Despite these elevated trade tensions ... despite this elevated uncertainty that we continue to face, the world economy is still going to grow.”
He noted the IMF revised its growth forecast for the world economy for this year to 3% from its forecast of 2.8% in April. The forecast for next year was revised to 3.1% from 3%.
For SA, a small open economy with deep trade linkages, that resilience matters.
Another positive shift is in the country’s terms of trade, which refers to the balance between what SA earns for its exports, such as gold and platinum, versus what it pays for imports such as oil.
“We have seen a very strong increase in gold prices, but we’ve also seen a strong increase in platinum prices. Those are things we export [and that] certainly helps us, and that happens in an environment where Brent crude oil prices ... have been quite subdued. So that terms of trade dynamic, in a way, certainly helps,” Maluleke said.
“We do see in the data that exports to the US certainly are underperforming relative to exports to the rest of the world, and tariffs are probably playing a role in that. And this was before the 30% tariff actually kicked in ... now that it has kicked in, you’re going to get parts of the economy being even less competitive going forward,” he said.
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