The economy maintained its resilience in September, with the PayInc Economic Index (previously the BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index) recording its fifth consecutive monthly increase — a sign that moderate growth in the second quarter may have carried through into the third.
The index, which tracks the real value of electronic transactions and wholesale cash demand across the economy, and reflects the resilience of the economy and agility of its businesses, rose 0.2% to 102.3 in September 2025, 3% higher than a year earlier.
With a correlation of more than 97% to quarterly GDP outcomes, this index serves as an early indicator of economic momentum, offering insights weeks before official statistics are released. By incorporating cash demand alongside digital payment flows, the index captures both the formal and informal sides of the economy.
Independent economist Elize Kruger said the resilience reflected the complex forces shaping the economy: “No single factor is the primary driver of the outcome, but rather the outcome is the net effect of multiple forces with tailwinds and positive developments countering the potential negative impact of headwinds and challenges, such as the uncertain global environment.”
PayInc highlighted several factors supporting base demand: low inflation, recent interest rate cuts, two consecutive years of real salary increases and lower fuel costs, as well as the diversified composition of SA’s trade and a stronger rand.
“These factors, cumulatively, support base demand in the economy, despite low confidence levels, uncertainties and high cost of living challenges,” Kruger said.
The index suggests real GDP growth of about 1.1% for the third quarter. However, Kruger warned overall growth for 2025 is still expected to hover between 1.0% and 1.2%.
“Given that our population increase is in excess of this growth rate, South Africans are on average becoming poorer, while such a low growth rate is unlikely to stimulate any significant job creation. This remains concerning given that one out of three willing people in SA are already unable to find employment,” she said, adding the “narrative is one of surviving rather than thriving”.
“With the economic growth rate still stuck at about 1%, the business environment remains challenging as seen in the number of job losses announced in recent weeks, in different sectors of the economy. This reflects the underlying strain, especially in sectors that are directly affected by factors such as the impact of US import tariffs and could place downward pressure on economic activity in the final months of 2025.”
Other data corroborated the index’s reading. Naamsa reported that vehicle sales rose 24.3% year on year in September, with new car sales up 28%. The S&P Global SA PMI inched up to 50.2 from 50.1 in August, marking a fifth month of expansion, while the Absa manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, returning to growth for only the second time this year.
“Encouragingly, the average PMI for [the third quarter of] 2025 rose to 50.8 points, showing an increase from the previous quarters. The report noted the industry continues to face challenges, as export demand remains sluggish and further complicated by US trade tariffs,” PayInc noted.
The number of transactions processed through PayInc hit a record 181.1-million in September, up from 177.8-million in August and 15.5% higher than a year earlier. The nominal value of electronic transactions rose to R1.378-trillion from R1.351-trillion in August.
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