After 57 days in office, the world is taking US President Donald Trump very, very seriously. On Friday, SA learnt that we had better do the same.
The first expulsion of an SA ambassador from the US should not be lightly dismissed. Nor should the real reasons. In the world of power, Ebrahim Rasool’s expulsion leaves a stain on SA’s standing in the West, as it was intended to. The Trump administration has been trying to send SA a message that has so far not been properly heard. SA has stepped into major international disputes without recognising the risks.
We are a small country widely considered to be failing. Our growth rate is lower than all our African neighbours. Our cities are in long-term decline. Our army has just been humiliated for the second time, in a mission for which it was not properly equipped, defending an ally whose troops cut and ran, leaving our soldiers on the field. We expect applause when we keep the lights on.
Yet we chose to make enemies in the big league. For a time we got away with it. But the real message of the Rasool expulsion is that if we plan to go on playing in the big league we must expect real pain. Ostensibly, Rasool was expelled for his remarks at Friday’s webinar. He said Trump’s political movement was based on an attitude of “supremacism”. That did indeed create a problem. Diplomats are expected to avoid criticising the domestic politics of their host country. But it was also an excellent pretext. The administration has been trying to send us signals that they will not allow us to go on as usual without pushback.
There are two underlying reasons Trump will not let SA go. The first was the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel. The second is our rhetorical support in Brics for an alternative to the dollar as a world reserve currency. Each touches a raw nerve for Trump’s most important plans.
The ICJ case has infuriated Trump and his partner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But they could not execute a public humiliation like an expulsion over that, because the ICJ case was, in many ways, shrewd as well as ambitious. For decades, Washington has demanded a “rules-based international order”. What is more in line with that principle than asking an international panel of distinguished judges for a ruling? The ICJ case gave them a major reason to want revenge, but they would need a different excuse.
Rasool’s remarks were injudicious. I was online for the webinar in which he made them. It was a great pity, because much of his talk made sense. He was actually appealing to activists to calm down, to avoid reacting unthinkingly, to do the hard work of diplomacy. But then he said Trump’s domestic policies were motivated by “supremacism”, and the die was cast.
Next axe to fall
But there was a second risky event on Friday, the day of Rasool’s webinar. Johannesburg took the decision to finalise renaming the street where the US consulate is located after Leila Khaled, the first Palestinian woman to be caught in plane hijackings in which US civilians were killed.
The move is intended to humiliate the US government, which would have to print her name on its letterheads. Washington has been warning Tshwane that they will not let this pass. Joel Pollak, the ex-South African who is part of Trump’s circle and tipped as his potential next ambassador to SA, warned SA a few weeks ago that if Johannesburg went ahead, the US consulate in Johannesburg would close down and not reopen. Johannesburg went ahead anyway.
Is a woman involved in killing American civilians someone SA should honour at the risk of our US relationship? Most Americans, Republican or Democrat, would be repulsed by that. SA should expect to pay. Closing the US’s Johannesburg consulate will be another blow. If Ramaphosa has time to get it stopped before it is too late, he needs to do it.
What does Trump want?
Trump’s current presidential term is quite different from the first. He is far more powerful at home and ambitious abroad. He has far firmer control of his party in both houses of Congress, and of his cabinet, who pledged not to oppose his trade war before they were appointed. Anyone who still thinks him stupid is missing something. This political achievement has taken skill as well as brutal determination.
And it’s only the beginning.
By starting a global trade war, he has shaken every government in the world out of complacency. There will be losers and winners. Those that win will have to fundamentally rethink old certainties and reorientate policies. Canada, Mexico and Europe were the first to feel his wrath, and their policy changes are already profound. After first ignoring his talk of annexing Canada, its government has now concluded he is serious. He repeats it regularly in private as well as public.
One cannot discern Trump’s intentions from what he says. You need to watch what he does.
With a set of diplomatic signals, he has got through to Europe that their 80 years of reliable allegiance are over.
Both Canada and Europe are beginning to settle in for a brutal trade war. As the weaker country against the US, Canadians know they face almost certain recession, due entirely to Trump’s reversal of centuries of harmony and his decision to reject the trade treaty he signed with Canada during his first term.
European nations have also realised this will not soon pass. Europe has committed to retaliate against his tariffs and reversed decades of policy to embark on a major rearmament to give it independence from the US.
European governments are allocating $850bn of new money to its military establishments, reviving Europe’s own arms industries. Non-nuclear European states are reconsidering acquiring nuclear weapons. Canada and Portugal were the first to announce a review of their plans to buy America’s flagship stealth fighter jet, the F-35, intending to cancel tens of billions of dollars in orders.
Trump’s equal opportunity enemies list has brought the other states closer together. In Canada, trade barriers between provinces are being removed. Australia, Canada and European nations are talking about joint military and economic co-operation. It has already brought SA closer to the Europeans. Last week’s EU-SA summit, the first in eight years, could be the start of a fruitful acceleration in trade and co-operation.
And China is wooing them all, with its reminder that, unlike the US, it has not been to war since 1978 and that it continues to defend the “rules-based international order” Trump has upended. Of all the countries involved, China is probably the best prepared. This is natural because they faced enough impetuous tariffs last time Trump was in office to expect the worst. It is ironic because China is really Trump’s main target.
The real agenda
One cannot discern Trump’s intentions from what he says. You need to watch what he does. He launched the trade war with the US’s longtime close ally and neighbour by saying Canada was letting in too many drugs, but said at the same time there was nothing Canada could do to stop him. Those are not the words of someone who wants to negotiate.
After Canada thought it had resolved that problem, Trump brought new tariffs because Canada was subsiding milk and steel. Again he did not offer negotiations, only unilateral punishment. Gradually it became obvious that the most telling point he was making was, “We don’t need anything from Canada. We can make it all at home.”
He has blurred the line between government property and his own, paving the way to build a much bigger fortune during his presidency.
What is consistent in his positions amid the contradictions? It’s the determination to get back lost investment in US industry. Trump’s anti-globalism is motivated by the loss of US markets to China in more than 40 years of globalisation. His real goal is to strengthen the US economy and weaken China.
His methods leave traditional American conservatives distraught, but they have the same concerns about China. The dominant view among US national security practitioners is that China is the US’s real enemy and the rest of the world are minor players.
With this mind, former president Barack Obama was determined to pivot to China, and immensely frustrated by the distractions of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine. He called Russia “a gas station with nukes”, because its economy is based on oil and gas, and its size is small compared with the US and China. Vladimir Putin never forgave him.
Trump shares this view. But he is used to making decisions alone as the unchallenged head of a family business in the rough neighbourhood of New York property development. He has no trouble betraying his own. The two children of his elder brother, Fred, have never forgiven him for depriving them of their inheritance. He didn’t mind any more than he minds dividing Nato.
He is cruel, bullies those weaker than him and butters up the strong and authoritarian. He has blurred the line between government property and his own, paving the way to build a much bigger fortune during his presidency. This year alone he has made billions personally with a new crypto currency, and announced plans for a new skyscraper in Saudi Arabia, where he chose to locate the Ukraine peace talks.
He is not a nice man. But he is a formidable opponent.
The US deindustrialised during the period of globalisation, as China ate the West’s lunch. And the political class in Washington let China do it. Trump seeks nothing less than to weaken China and reindustrialise the US by bringing in investment and restoring American manufacturing. He looks kindly on Russia because he hopes to ween it from its China bromance, he has his eye on Russian minerals, and has an inexplicable fondness for strongmen.
For the time being, Britain has seduced him with a second state visit hosted by King Charles III. But even here do not rule out some method: Trump supported Brexit, which has weakened Britain and Europe economically. Trump does not like the EU. Is it because a united Europe matches the US in economic power? Trump is an economic nationalist.
The Mar-a-Lago accord refers to a plan drafted by some in his circle to secure the dollar as the reserve currency while weakening it to make US exports more competitive. It’s a tricky balancing act, but helps explain his change from an opponent of cryptocurrencies to a supporter. Encouraging crypto is seen at Mar-a-Lago as a way to fend off the rise of foreign currencies.
On April 2 he will unveil his biggest round of punishment, expected to target China, Europe, Canada, India and Australia.
Oh, and he wants to make as much money as he can for himself out of the presidency. Each of these goals is evident from what he does rather than what he says.
Trump wishes to win over Russia’s support in part to drive a wedge between Russia and its Brics partners, including SA. Putin may not be unwilling, provided he gets his way in Ukraine. If Trump succeeds, it could affect Russia’s attitude to the dollar, in the Middle East, and in multiple other world hot-button issues where the US and Russia have interests.
Retaliation
Europe and Canada have decided they have to fight. They have no alternative. Their countries cannot sustain Trump’s erratic bargaining style, where each day tears up yesterday’s plan.
The countries that can reindustrialise will be the winners, but it’s far from clear which countries they will be. Germany, just like the US, faces a crisis in its motor industry in the face of overwhelming Chinese electric vehicle (EV) production of cheaper, better EVs. It will depend on policies they are just starting to develop.
In both Europe and Canada, a fundamental rethink of economic and development policy is under way, probably including re-industrialisation.
China is probably the country most prepared for Trump’s return. Ten years ago, China released its industrial policy, Made in China 2025. Its goals were to achieve global dominance in renewable energy and EVs, and in the main sectors of AI and other elements in the fourth industrial revolution.
It has largely met its targets. It is outproducing and out-pricing the world in steel and EVs. This is a major cause of Germany’s stagnation, and the risks for Germany’s car sector are high.
During Trump’s first term, China began aggressively diversifying its markets and preparing for a trade war. They expected it. Canada, Mexico and Europe are treating this like an emergency. SA should too.
Globalisation took its toll on SA too. In the 1990s the new ANC government lifted all tariffs on clothing, and SA’s clothing factories collapsed.
Trump’s trade war has boosted the gold price above $3,000, but SA’s ability to benefit is small because our gold production is in the same long-term decline as our factories.
SA has genuinely shifted its stance on Ukraine, inviting President Volodymyr Zelensky for a state visit next month. And President Cyril Ramaphosa’s hosting of the first EU-SA summit in eight years signalled recognition on both sides that they have strong mutual interest in getting closer to reduce dependency on unreliable America.
The key to SA’s recovery is growth in major sectors, including mining and manufacturing. While China met all its Made in China 2025 targets, SA met almost none in its National Development Plan goals. The gap between targets and outcomes was more than a country mile. Turning that around is SA’s real challenge.
Meanwhile, nobody should underestimate America’s power. Canada cannot win a trade war against the US and nor can its other “allies”, though the more they are able to unite the stronger they will be.
But there are two real threats to Trump’s new regime, and they are domestic: the damage he is causing to the US economy, and the rising political opposition coming from the grassroots.
The stock market has fallen close to 20% since his trade wars began, and confidence in his management of the economy is falling among the US public. Businesses are putting investment decisions on hold because the outcomes of these battles are so important.
And demonstrations at the grassroots are rapidly ratcheting up. Republican congressmen and women have taken note. After several angry town hall meetings in their home districts, Republican leaders have advised them not to hold any more. If that is a pointer to the 2026 congressional election prospects, that will be Trump’s next test.
• Matisonn is a journalist, author and former senior UN official.
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