Not so long ago the superhero genre was considered to be the safest bet that studios could make to ensure increased profits and justify the failure of other projects.
From 2015 to 2019, according to a report by Variety, 25 of 30 superhero films made more than $500m at the box office per film, with some — like Avengers: Endgame — breaking the $1bn global gross mark. The superhero movie, which had been an occasional tentpole fixture, had in the age of the Marvel Comics Universe (MCU), Spider-Man and the DC Universe become the dominant genre in the lucrative summer blockbuster slate.
Now, in the wake of the pandemic and the delays and disruptions caused by last year’s strikes, the superhero film is in crisis and it may be up to an old reliable member of the fantasy universe to leave his fortress of solitude and save it from total collapse.
In 2018 and 2019 the average global gross for superhero films was more than $1bn, but this year it has fallen to half of that figure and, despite a strong showing from Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman’s Deadpool & Wolverine, superheroes on screen are mostly losing their box office battles.
Joker: Folie à Deux, the year’s other much-anticipated superhero vehicle, has tanked with critics and audiences, and will have to wait decades to equal its predecessor’s $1bn-plus global box office figures. In fact, it’s estimated that the film will be lucky to make total box-office equivalent to the first film’s $284.4m global opening weekend in 2019. This year’s other superhero films, including The Flash, Madame Web and The Marvels, have fared even worse, so studios will have to pin their hopes on their 2025 release slates.
The reasons for the pushback against what once seemed an easily bankable genre are complicated and manifold, but possible factors include:
- DC’s reputational problems, including controversies around Flash star Ezra Miller killing the film before it was released and the announcement that its strategy would be completely overhauled by a new leadership team.
- Marvel’s overconfident bet on the expansion of its content for Disney+ series, which has oversaturated the market and exhausted all but the most diehard fans.
- Sony’s less-than-successful attempt to build itself a Spider-Man universe that no longer includes Spider-Man.
All of these have reduced the once mighty superhero film to a struggling shadow of its starry heights.
Marvel Studios is betting big on three films due for release next year to turn the ship around. Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts and The Fantastic Four: First Steps have all been aggressively punted by the studio as offering solid returns to profitability come 2025. But, as one industry analyst told Variety, on paper and in the light of the challenges facing the genre, none of these films represent “a slam dunk”.
The interconnectivity between films and series that the MCU has previously relied on for fan satisfaction has tested audience patience. The Fantastic Four, though hugely significant within the lore of the Marvel universe, have proved difficult to adapt to screen with any real success in previous attempts.
Sony Pictures, which used to own the rights to the character of Spider-Man but has since handed them to Marvel, has tried to create a Spider-Man universe without Spider-Man in the Venom franchise, the upcoming Kraven the Hunter starring Aaron Taylor-Johnson and the Spider-Noir TV series, but thus far has had little success compared with its Spidey-centred films.
Marvel and Sony have both committed to releasing superhero content well into the next few years, which could result in something hitting the numbers they could expect pre-pandemic. DC Studios, however, has everything riding on its 2025 projects. The studio, now headed by director James Gunn and producer Peter Safran, has announced a new slate of 10 films and TV shows intended to relaunch the brand and secure its future.
The most important of these and the film that everyone at DC hopes will set it on a new course to profitability is Gunn’s Superman: Legacy, which will star David Corenswet as the Man of Steel. Analysts say it will need to do something that a DC film hasn’t done since Matt Reeves’ Batman in 2022 — open with a domestic weekend box office of $100m. That’s a tall order in the current environment, even for a stalwart superhero like Superman. If Gunn and his team fail to meet it, their chances of their other projects seeing the light of day will fast disappear.
All of which is not good news for superhero fans, though it shouldn’t signal the death knell to the genre yet. As industry analyst Jeff Bock told Variety: “There still isn’t anything to replace superheroes at the box office in terms of films with the potential to make that amount of money. Until we see some other genre take over, they’re going to continue to invest in it.”
The only questions are whether studios will keep investing in a genre that can no longer guarantee significant returns and whether next year’s superheroes can carry the pressure that’s been placed on them.
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