Sydney — Asian stocks stumbled on Monday after China delivered a smaller cut to lending rates than markets had counted on, continuing Beijing’s run of disappointingly frugal stimulus steps.
China’s central bank trimmed its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points and left its five-year rate unmoved, a surprise to analysts who had expected cuts of 15 basis points to both.
Disappointment at the meagre move saw Chinese blue chips ease 0.4% to the lowest in almost nine months, while the Australian dollar took a brief dip as a proxy for China risk.
Investors have been hoping for a repeat of the huge fiscal spending that has juiced the economy in the past, even though Beijing seems reluctant to add to its borrowing tasks.
Indeed, there was chatter in the market that the authorities skipped a cut in the five-year rate precisely because there was more significant action on the way.
Sentiment was also helped by a rush of Chinese companies outlining plans for share buybacks as regulators voiced support for the moves.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan still slipped 0.4% to a fresh low for the year, adding to a 3.9% dive last week. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.4%, though that follows a 3.2% drop last week.
Eurostoxx 50 futures and FTSE futures both edged up 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were near flat. Earnings from AI-darling Nvidia on Wednesday will be a major test of valuations.
Analysts are concerned the market has got too long, especially of tech, leaving it vulnerable to a deeper pullback.
BofA’s latest survey of fund managers found sentiment was the least bearish since February 2022, while cash levels were at nearly a two-year low, and three out of four surveyed expect a soft landing or no landing for the global economy.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, argue there is still scope for investors to add to equity positions.
“The reopening of the buyback blackout window will provide a boost to equity demand in coming weeks though a flurry of expected equity issuance this fall may provide a partial offset,” they wrote in a note.
Parsing Powell
Stock valuations have been pressured in part by a sharp rise in bond yields, with the US 10-year hitting 10-month highs last week at 4.328%.
Early Monday, yields were up again at 4.28% and a break above 4.338% would take them to levels not seen since 2007.
Markets assume Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will note the jump in yields at the Jackson Hole conference this week, and the recent run of strong economic data. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracker is running at a heady 5.8% for this quarter.
“It’s an opportunity for Powell to give an updated assessment on economic conditions, which now appear stronger than anticipated and reinforce the case for additional rate hikes,” Barclays analyst Marc Giannoni said.
“Even so, we would be surprised if he provided specific guidance, with key August prints for employment, CPI [consumer price index] and retail sales all to come before the September meeting.”
A majority of polled analysts think the Fed is done hiking, while futures imply around a 31% chance of one more increase by December.
The rise in yields has helped the dollar notch five weeks of gains and a nine-month top on the Japanese yen at ¥146.56. On Monday, it was trading at ¥145.36 with the market wary of risk of Japanese intervention.
The euro was also firm at ¥158.14, but under pressure from the dollar at $1.0881 after losing 0.7% last week.
The ascent of the dollar and yields was weighing on gold at $1,891/oz, having touched a five-month low last week.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, having snapped a seven-week winning streak as concerns about Chinese demand offset tight supplies.
Brent was up 52c at $85.32 a barrel, while US crude bounced 62c to $81.87 a barrel.
Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) were underpinned by the risk of a strike at Australian offshore facilities that could affect around 10% of global supply.
Reuters
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