Singapore — Asia’s stock markets steadied on Tuesday as semiconductor shares bounced back to break an expensive losing streak, while a bleak demand outlook from China dragged down commodity prices and investors turned their attention to US earnings and data.
Bonds held firm and the dollar was steady on most majors save for the yen, which rose about 0.5%, and the Australian and New Zealand currencies, which sagged in sympathy with metals.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei was flat and Taiwan’s benchmark snapped five sessions of losses to rise 2%, tracking a broader rebound in chipmaking shares and recovering some of the $100bn in market value that was wiped off TSMC over the previous few sessions.
European futures rose 0.1% and US futures fell 0.2% after a 1.1% rise in the S&P 500 on Monday.
“Markets are a bit rudderless right now. There’s ... three competing themes or narratives that have not settled yet,” said Cambridge Associates Asia head and global investment strategist Aaron Costello.
On one hand, he said, market wagers on Donald Trump winning back the US presidency had upward pressure on US yields and the dollar, while the expectation of rate cuts in coming months had the opposite effect.
“For China markets, you have the let down after the plenum,” he said, “which is essentially suggesting no changes in policy and certainly no major stimulus coming.”
Beijing surprised markets with interest rate cuts on Monday though it has also put a spotlight on China’s economic weaknesses.
Chinese blue chips fell 1% and back below their 200-day moving average, Shanghai copper hit its lowest since April while Dalian iron ore futures fell 2% to a three-month low and dragged on the Australian dollar.
“The lack of any further support measures for China’s property sector has seen sentiment weaken,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.
The Aussie dipped to a three-week low of $0.6629 and the kiwi to a nearly three-month low of $0.5965. China’s yuan, which slipped with Monday’s rate cut, hovered around 7.2740 on Tuesday.
Earnings and economics
Broader bond and foreign exchange markets were mostly steady as focus turned to the data docket and a busy week of US earnings. The euro held at $1.088 and the yen was firmer at ¥156.40 to the dollar.
Benchmark 10-year treasury yields inched two basis points lower to 4.24% and two-year yields were steady at 4.51%. Markets have priced in two US rate cuts in 2024 with the first in September, but expectations could be ruffled by growth and consumer price data due later in the week.
Advance US GDP is forecast to show growth picking up to an annualised 1.9% in the second quarter, while the closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator points to growth of 2.7% suggesting some risk to the upside.
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is seen rising 0.1% in June, pulling the annual pace down a tick to 2.5%.
A slew of earnings are also due, headed by Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet, which begin the season for the “Magnificent Seven” megacap group of stocks.
The tech sector is projected to increase year-over-year earnings by 17%, while profit for the communication services sector is seen rising about 22%, according to LSEG IBES, but richly valued stocks are also prone to disappointment.
Tesla and Alphabet report after Tuesday’s close in New York. Others reporting include France’s LVMH, which will be closely watched as sliding demand from China has pummelled the sector.
Gold prices were pinned around $2,400 after peaking above $2,450 last week. Brent crude futures, which hit a one-month low on Monday, were steady at $82.41 a barrel.
Bitcoin, which has rallied on bets a Trump administration would take a light-touch approach to cryptocurrency regulation, pulled back 2% to $64,466.
Reuters
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