The rand and the JSE were firmer on Tuesday morning as investors focused on the US presidential election.
The numbers from various polls show a tight race between US vice-president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, with the US heading to the polls today.
The TIPP poll — an economic optimism index by Investor's Business Daily, which gives an early look at how US consumers feel about the economy, personal finances and federal policies — has Harris and Trump tied at 48%, while the Ipsos Business Daily gives Harris a slight edge — 50% to 48% — reported Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, the Atlas Intel poll shows Trump leading by one percentage point — 50% to 49%. In key states, Trump appears to be holding his ground in Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris is closing the gap in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
Experts predict it may take several days to determine the winner, given the tight race in these crucial states.
“The rand remains stable against the dollar, largely hovering around R17.50. Despite some weakness in the dollar ahead of the US election, the rand’s future movement will likely hinge on election results,” TreasuryOne currency strategist Andre Cilliers said.
“A Kamala Harris victory is expected to weaken the dollar, potentially boosting emerging market currencies like the rand. Conversely, a Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, pressuring the rand to fall.”
At 11.08pm, the rand had strengthened 0.31% to R17.4585/$ and 0.19% to R19.023/€, and it was little changed at R22.665/£. The euro was 0.17% firmer at $1.0896.
Technically, dollar-rand level is showing resistance at R17.7000 and support at R17.4780 and R17.3500, said Cilliers. “These levels suggest some stability unless major shifts arise from US election outcomes or unexpected domestic data,” he added.
Market participants are also closely watching the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to be delivered on Thursday. Investors will watch Fed chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting commentary for clarity on future rate moves.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are predicting a 96% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points after a significant 50 bps move in September.
At 10.50am, the JSE all share had gained 0.19% to 86,386.11 points, with major indices mixed, while the top 40 added 0.19%.
At the same time in Europe, the FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 were up 0.24%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.18%.
Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai Composite rose 2.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 2.03% and Japan’s Nikkei 1.11%.
In the commodities markets, gold gained 0.29% to $2,743.51/oz and platinum 1.19% to $994.51/oz. Brent crude was 0.11% firmer at $75.16 a barrel.
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