At least one gigawatt of energy capacity, equal to the amount of energy dropped by each stage of load-shedding, could be added to the national grid over the next 12 months if bureaucratic processes at the National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) and
the department of energy are sped up.
The constraint on the electricity grid — the most severe SA has experienced — is expected to continue for several years as Eskom battles to restore its capacity, which continues to drop due to years of neglected maintenance.
While public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan has promised to return in two weeks to give an estimate of how long Eskom’s supply constraints will last, experts expect supply to be constrained for the next two to four years.
"We know that within 12 months we could add 1GW to the grid," according to SA Photovoltaic Association board member Jo Dean.
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However, Nersa and the department of energy appear to be in no hurry to bring new power onto the grid through small-scale embedded generation by businesses, particularly farmers, or by procuring new rounds of renewable energy.
About 500 projects to generate between 1MW and 10MW using solar PV panels are in the pipeline but depend on Nersa publishing rules of registration, which it received from energy minister Jeff Radebe in December. It is only after the comment period that Radebe will be able to promulgate the rules.
Asked on Wednesday to put a timeline to this, Nersa said it was still going through internal approval processes and will publish them "in due course".
AgriSA puts the potential generating capacity even higher and says it is aware of 500 applications that would relieve as much as 1,400MW strain on the grid. "We are not asking for funding or even special treatment, just to speed up the process within Eskom and Nersa to process these applications," says AgriSA economist Nicol Jansen.
More capacity could also be added within two years if procurement processes for new wind and solar projects were set into motion now.
Anton Eberhard, a professor at the University of Cape Town and a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s task team on Eskom, said new procurement was "incredibly urgent".
"Eskom plant is deteriorating and SA has got to procure more capacity. The quickest way to get new capacity on line is through renewable energy. Some will argue that renewable energy will not help because it is not base-load power.
"But at this stage every kilowatt hour will help and will mean less load-shedding during the day and less diesel burned."
Business Unity SA (Busa) deputy president Martin Kingston, who also heads Busa’s energy committee, said business had appealed to the government over the past year to expedite approvals for renewables, small-scale embedded generation and other forms of self-supply. He said it was legally possible for Radebe to make new determinations before the government’s long-term energy plan was promulgated.
Although Radebe said he intended to get the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) through cabinet before the current term ended, there is only one cabinet meeting, on March 27, scheduled before the May elections.
A significant political pushback against renewable energy provided by independent power producers (IPPs) has made the government reluctant to finalise the IRP prior to the elections.
Eberhard agrees that it is not necessary to wait until the IRP is finalised. In 2015 then energy minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson announced an "expedited round" of renewable energy procurement, which would allow for unsuccessful bids to re-enter with new pricing.
That round was cancelled due to political opposition.
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