Co-operative governance & traditional affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma believes the state’s contentious cigarette ban will result in a “sizeable number” of South Africans quitting the habit — and has sought to dispute the contention that it is, in fact, resulting in a boom in the illicit trade of cigarettes.
Dlamini-Zuma’s submissions on the ban were contained in a “record of decision” that was filed at the high court in Pretoria on Wednesday. The submission was part of 3,674 pages filed by the government to explain why it resolved to outlaw cigarette sales during its Covid-19 shutdown. The Fair Trade Independent Tobacco Association (Fita), a lobby group, contends that the decision was irrational and must be overturned.
The minister argues that the illicit trade — which tax consultant and former high-level SA Revenue Service official Johann van Loggerenberg has conservatively estimated has seen R142m funnelled into the underground economy over the past 60 days — is a global and local reality that can only be stamped out by reducing demand.
“Because of higher prices and reduced access, it is expected that a sizeable number of South Africans will stop smoking and remain quit after the lockdown. The poor and youth are particularly likely to quit,” Dlamini-Zuma contends.
“If fewer South Africans smoke, then the consumer demand for illicit cigarettes will fall and this will be accomplished by a decline in the illicit trade,” she said.
However, the results of an online survey recently released by the University of Cape Town strongly suggests that smokers are not quitting. Up to 90% of the more than 16,000 participants surveyed stated that they were still managing to access cigarettes from a variety of places. These included spaza shops, WhatsApp groups and street vendors.
Dlamini-Zuma argues that research released by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) earlier in May, which consisted of online surveys of close to 70,000 people, contained data that 88% of smokers surveyed said they were not able to buy cigarettes during the lockdown.
The HSRC, which describes the cigarette ban as “a crucial element of trying to reduce the impact of the virus on patients and the health-care system”, said this data suggested the ban was effective.
A week after releasing the study relied on by Dlamini-Zuma, the HSRC released an article stating that its own “official data” also showed “that people buying illegal cigarettes are 50% more likely than others to have had close contact, within two metres, with more than 10 others outside the home”. This means, in effect, that buying illicit cigarettes exposed smokers to additional Covid-19 infection risks.
Dlamini-Zuma appears resolute that the legal sale of cigarettes is a far greater risk to smokers than the potential increase in the illicit trade that has seen illegal cigarette prices skyrocketing.
The ban is, however, significantly affecting Sars ’s ability to collect revenue from the tobacco industry. Police minister Bheki Cele has admitted that crime syndicates have taken advantage of the ban and have expanded in the trade of tobacco products.
A key driver of the government’s crackdown on smoking in the 1990s, Dlamini-Zuma says the government’s decision to impose a cigarette ban during its Covid-19 shutdown was “to protect human life and health and to reduce the potential strain on the health-care system”.
“As tobacco use is known to lead to respiratory diseases, and Covid-19 primarily affects the respiratory system, it is logical to proceed on the basis that tobacco may lead to increased risks in relation to Covid-19,” she states.
Among the arguments advanced by the minister is that SA’s 8-million smokers have a greater risk of requiring ventilators if they are infected.
“If a conservative estimate of 1% of the 8-million smokers were to contract Covid-19, 80,000 smokers would be infected countrywide.
“If an estimated 10% were to need [intensive care units], this would translate to about 8,000 people needing ICU hospital beds and ventilators in the whole country, which would greatly exceed the current availability of approximately 4,000 ventilators.”
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