As load-shedding returns that is set to last until Sunday night, analysts warn electricity supply is expected to be a drag on SA’s economic recovery in 2021.
The utility implemented stage 2 load-shedding from midday on Thursday and warned it may be adjusted to more severe stages at short notice should more of the breakdowns occur that have prompted the decision.
At stage 2, Eskom sheds 2,000MW of demand from the power grid, which is enough to supply 1.3-million average households.
The rotational power cuts come as industry, already suffering the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, ramps up after the holiday period. In an outlook published by BNP Paribas, the banking group identified electricity supply as the largest structural drag on SA’s economic growth in the year ahead, which will cause it to continue to trail behind its emerging-market peers.
“We have long held the view that SA’s recovery in 2021 would disappoint most expectations,” it said. “Eskom implemented record load-shedding in 2020 … Energy supply estimates from the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, which in 2020 tallied well with actual load-shedding, suggest that the supply gap could be more than 60% larger this year.”
Large swathes of load-shedding therefore seem unavoidable in 2021, the outlook noted, in the absence of a marked improvement in Eskom’s energy availability factor, which fell to just 55% in the early weeks of January.
Of Eskom’s 45,000MW installed power generation capacity, more than 20,000MW was unavailable on Thursday afternoon — 5,358MW was offline because of planned maintenance, while another 14,748MW was down due to unplanned maintenance, breakdowns and outage delays.
Eskom said two power generation units at the Kusile power station tripped due to the failure of the main conveyor belts supplying coal to the units.
In addition, a unit each at the Kriel and Duvha power stations tripped due to unforeseen breakdowns. The return to service from planned maintenance of a further four generation units has been delayed.
“The load-shedding is necessary due to loss of generation capacity overnight. Load-shedding is also required to manage the use of the emergency reserves, which will help us contain the stage of load-shedding required,” Eskom said in a statement.
The utility said personnel is working tirelessly to return as much of that capacity to service as soon as possible.
Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has previously said an aggressive maintenance drive will increase the risk of load-shedding in the first few months of the year, and a “step-change” in the power system is expected from April onwards.
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