The recovery of SA’s airline industry has been derailed by the resurgence of Covid-19 and the subsequent introduction of stricter government measures to curb the spread of the deadly virus, local industry players say.
“If we get past the second wave, the domestic airline recovery should improve further. The international recovery has definitely slowed significantly because of different measures many states are taking. International feed to domestic flights has therefore slowed, Chris Zweigenthal, CEO of the Airlines Association of Southern Africa, told Business Day last week.
In SA, the government recently reintroduced strict measures, including shutting land borders and amending the curfew to between 9pm and 5am, from 9pm to 6am, which has forced airlines to either reschedule or cancel flights. This is set to lead to a further drop in revenue.
Many companies have shifted to a work-from-home system and video conferencing, which has reduced demand for local air travel.
Local airlines are also affected by decisions of international and regional airlines to curtail or suspend services to SA.
Zweigenthal said the rate of recovery will largely depend on progress in fighting the virus internally and passengers’ propensity to travel and that further constraints are not placed on domestic travel.
But domestic travel is performing better than international travel worldwide because domestic regulations are based on one government’s decisions and regulations whereas international travel is reliant on multiple states aligning their individual measures and this is not happening.
The local airline industry was pushed to the brink of collapse in 2020 after being forced to cease operating for most of the strict lockdown that started in March.
Big players — including state-owned SAA, which was already struggling before Covid-19, and the previously profitable Kulula operator Comair — faced potential liquidation.
The latter returned to the skies in December, operating a limited schedule. SAA has remained largely grounded as authorities battle to finalise the business rescue process amid clashes with unions over wages and severance packages.
Kirby Gordon, the chief marketing officer at domestic low-cost carrier FlySafair, said operations quickly scaled down when the Covid-19 second wave hit.
“Effectively we spent most of 2020 trying to ‘stop the bleed’ and had a small moment, perhaps a week or two in November, where things were seeming normal. But, unfortunately, like so many industries, things are not great again now,” he said.
Gordon said recovery had slowed in part due to the stricter measures but also due to the fact that people are rightly concerned about the second wave.
Rodger Foster, the MD and CEO of the Gauteng-based regional airline Airlink, said the adjusted level 3 restrictions have disrupted air travel and recovery. “The recent spike in the rate of infections and the heightened concern about the virulence of the new ‘SA variant’ mutation of Covid-19 are clear deterrents to air travel.”
He said there is a notable decline in demand for seats since the reversion to adjusted level 3 and the new curfew restrictions. Along with other airlines Airlink has cut capacity and frequency across its network accordingly.
Foster said that in November and December 2020 Airlink was operating at about 60% capacity, with the expectation that travel to many of its regional destinations would gradually resume. “Our new expectation, as informed by the progression of infections in the second wave, is that Airlink will only achieve 100% operationality in [the third quarter] of 2021 or later.”
A Comair spokesperson said the airline operator had to make further adjustments to its flight schedule, due to the extended daily curfew. Early morning and late evening flights have been cancelled. “We are unfortunately not in a position to provide the projected financial impact.”
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