Political analysts argue President Cyril Ramaphosa’s cabinet reshuffle shows his tense balancing act running the state while leading the governing party.
Ramaphosa shuffled some politicians, cut others and even scrapped a ministry, in the first cabinet reshuffles since he became head of state.
He was initially set to announce changes to the national executive at 8.30pm on Thursday. Half an hour later he announced 10 ministerial changes and 11 deputy ministers. Dr Zweli Mkhize’s resignation as health minister and Tito Mboweni’s repeated plea to be relieved of his duties as finance minister contributed to the delay.
Political analyst Omgama Mtimka said Ramaphosa’s timing was telling: “Less sensitive decisions wouldn’t take long.”
Mtimka said the changes reflected a trade-off between contested ANC power bases and government priorities. To him, Ramaphosa’s reshuffle reflected his position as a leader, and the extent to which he was constrained in taking decisions. “There is something he is busy managing,” he said.
Sanusha Naidu, senior research associate at Institute for Global Dialogue, raised concerns about Ramaphosa moving ministers across ministries. “It mustn't be a merry-go-round, where you just move people around in that space.”
Mtimka added: “If a president is still beholden by the political dynamics of the party we must forget about getting a capable state any time soon in SA.”
Some appointments were necessary due to vacancies. However, changes to the security cluster were informed by recent events that rocked SA. In July, civil unrest spread through KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in the wake of former president Jacob Zuma’s imprisonment for contempt of court. Thousands of looters raided businesses.
The mass theft, closure of national roads and torching of businesses spread into Gauteng later that month. Ramaphosa deployed 25,000 soldiers to support police. More than 330 people died, many of them killed including in stampedes. Minister of defence and military veterans Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula said the thuggery and criminality pointed to a counterrevolution.
While police minister Bheki Cele retained his post, Ramaphosa moved two of his peers in the security cluster. Naidu said of Cele, “He comes with a constituency. Can we afford to get rid of two cabinet ministers from KwaZulu-Natal?”
State security minister Ayando Dlodlo moved to public service & administration, while Thandi Modise replaced Mapisa-Nqakula. Ramaphosa said the ousted defence minister would be “be deployed to a new position” but gave no details.
Political science professor Amanda Gouws from the University of Stellenbosch said Dlodlo was competent in prior ministerial roles but Mapisa-Nqakula was a weaker minister. Both placed themselves at odds with the president, she said.
“They opposed Ramaphosa in public. When he called it an insurrection they said it wasn’t an insurrection, and that’s not something you do. Even if you disagree you don’t do so in public. So I think part of the problem here is their insubordination,” said Gouws.
Mtimka asked: “Why would you leave Bheki Cele? I quite like how he led the response of government in going to communities and being upfront there. But that was too late. He has also got to answer for what police did with the intel they got, and their lethargic response to incidents. There was bad leadership there. It cannot be escaped.”
Ramaphosa’s decision to scrap the ministry of state security entirely points to a department in tatters. He moved political responsibility for state security to the presidency with Zizi Kowda as the newly appointed deputy minister responsible for intelligence.
“This is to ensure that the country’s domestic and foreign intelligence services more effectively enable the president to exercise his responsibility to safeguard the security and integrity of the nation,” said Ramaphosa.
Speaking of the security cluster at large Gouws said, “He really needs competence in that cluster […] the question is: is there someone else waiting in the wings who is good at this? The security cluster has been so hollowed out because of the Zuma regime.”
“The setback of the last several weeks, and what we’ve seen with the unrest really creates a dilemma for him because it creates an added burden on the fiscus,” said Naidu.
While a reshuffle was necessary in order not to appear weak, said Gouws, it presented several risks. “We will lose competence or he will shift ministers to new ministries where they have to start all over again,” she said.
According to Business for SA (B4SA) chair Martin Kingston, new finance minister Enoch Godongwana must improve investors’ attitudes towards SA. “The level of confidence that was prepared to back the country has abated somewhat, unfortunately magnified by the recent unrest,” he said.
Kingston lauded outgoing finance minister Tito Mboweni for doing a “tremendous job” with National Treasury, adding B4SA would work with Godongwana in the same vein.
“He will certainly need to provide the requisite reassurance,” said Kingston. B4SA was anxious for urgent economic reform. “I have no doubt that Mr Godongwana understands that,” he said.
SA Federation of Trade Union (Saftu) general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi was confident Godongwane would be efficient. “He is not a robot. He is going to be more flexible than the previous minister who antagonised people,” he said.
Vavi criticised Ramaphosa for being “a man of many beautiful words but little action” who campaigned to lead the governing party with an undertaking to trim cabinet. “This is an attempt once again to provide more opportunities to factional interests,” he claimed.
To the union leader, Ramaphosa’s appointments flew in the face of workers’ plight: “When you have imposed the most biting austerity programme […] you increase the size of your cabinet to manage factional interests in your party.”
On moving ministers such as Dlodlo laterally he said, “This is about shifting the chairs.”
Making several changes to the national executive for the first time since he took office in 2018 was a moment of reckoning for Ramaphosa, whose leadership of the ANC will be further tested at the party’s elective conference in 2022. He leads 21 people in new posts who must set to work running the country, and well.
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