The turnout of the 3.1-million voters registered to vote in the Western Cape — 1.97-million of them in the Cape Town metro alone — will be critical to the outcome.
Turnout among young and first-time voters — there are 1.2-million voters 18-39 years old in the province, many of them unemployed — will also have a decisive effect on the result.
The proportional representation (PR) element of the electoral system where voters vote for a political party in addition to a ward councillor emphasises the importance of turnout. This has been key to the DA retaining control of the Cape Town metro for the past 15 years. Of the 231 seats on the metropolitan council, 115 are PR seats. The turnout of DA supporters in the past has been far in excess of that of opposing political parties, particularly the ANC.
It is something which DA mayoral candidate Geordin Hill-Lewis is emphasising to DA supporters, especially those in DA strongholds where complacency may creep in. “Turnout will be an absolutely critical factor. Every vote will count for the citywide total. Just a 10% drop in turnout [in a ward] can have a devastating effect on the PR ballot across the entire city,” he said.
ANC provincial election manager Cameron Dugmore says the ANC has put a lot of effort into getting a better turnout than in the 2016 local government elections, with voters being galvanised by the ANC’s message of renewal, the election of community-based candidates and anger over the DA’s failure to deliver services.
Voters in the province will have a wide choice as there are more than 12,400 candidates (7,263 in the 2016 local government elections) representing 96 political parties (53 of them in Cape Town) and 85 independents (41 in Cape Town) who will be vying for 844 seats. There are 30 municipal councils including the Cape Town metro and five district municipalities.
The large number of political parties contesting the election both in the province generally and Cape Town in particular gives credence to the view that no single political party will win an outright majority in many of the municipalities, and that the election will usher in coalition governments. Of the 11 coalition governments current in the province, the ANC leads 10, suggesting that it is the party that smaller parties will align with.
Hill-Lewis is confident the DA will retain control of Cape Town, saying there is great energy around the party’s campaign and that the response by residents has been “fantastic”, with people understanding that the city does work because it is DA-governed. DA Western Cape chairman Jaco Londt notes that the party keeps its finger on the voter pulse “to ensure that we are on track”.
But smaller parties such as GOOD and the Patriotic Alliance say that the favourable response they have received from voters gives them confidence that they can bring the DA down to below 50% in the metro.
Patriotic Alliance mayoral candidate Marvin Sampson believes his party will be able to win at least 20 PR council seats in Cape Town, up from one at present. “We are making inroads. I am superoptimistic that we are going to do well not only in Mitchells Plain but in the broader Cape Town as well.”
He said the aim is to bring the DA below 50% within the City of Cape Town and this could mean “we will have to go into a coalition with parties that have the interest of the marginalised at heart. I don’t think the DA will get an outright win in this election in Cape Town.”
Common problems cited by community members are high rates, water and electricity charges. “Everyone is feeling the pinch so we need a change, a change of government in the metro. The voters are receiving us very well. They want change. The main thing that comes up is that the people are fed-up.” Sampson said all his party’s ward candidates are community activists.
The party has promised that if it takes over the city it will annul all arrear water accounts. The Patriotic Alliance is also making inroads in towns such as Saldanha Bay and George, Sampson said.
Brett Herron, mayoral candidate for the GOOD party, said it is difficult to predict the outcome in Cape Town as there “is so much fluidity on the ground, but there are encouraging signs for us in parts of the country, particularly the Western Cape. I think almost anything can happen in Cape Town. If the response on the ground is an honest response, then I think we are going to do very well in Cape Town and towns like George, Saldanha Bay, Paarl and Beaufort West.
“I think the DA will bring themselves below 50% because their strategy countrywide is confusing. I think they have done enough damage to themselves for voters to be unsure what they are voting for. We are capitalising on this and on the fluidity in the electorate.”
Herron said GOOD, as part of a Cape Town metropolitan council, would push for a restructuring of municipal water and electricity charges.
Hill-Lewis noted that electricity tariffs are overwhelmingly determined by Eskom and the best way to reduce them is to generate cheaper independent power which a DA metro council plans to embark on. As for high water tariffs, he said these are necessary to fund massive investments in water infrastructure for an extremely water-vulnerable city.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.