The 2021 election could usher in a massive shift in SA’s political landscape, with the ANC for the first time admitting before an election that it is preparing for coalition talks, while the DA has signalled its willingness to co-operate with the ruling party.
In an unprecedented move, acting secretary-general Jessie Duarte told journalists that the ANC has already identified parties with which it is not willing to enter into agreements in line with its ideological standpoint. She did not name these parties.
A DA insider said the party has to consider what is best for the country and in some cases that may mean working with the governing party, despite their competition, which has at times been marked by animosity.
An ANC and DA tie-up could be a game changer in the electoral space. But groupings in the ANC are unlikely to easily agree to a tie-up with the DA and the issue may further divide the already deeply fractured governing party. On Wednesday, Duarte said the ANC will be discussing broad coalition principles to guide the party over the coming weekend.
The aftermath of Monday’s election will be characterised by feverish negotiations as parties jostle to patch together winning coalitions, specifically for the country’s metros.
SA can expect potential horse-trading between parties for control of municipalities and metros. For instance, one party could agree to hand control of the City of Tshwane to another, in exchange for control of the City of Johannesburg.
Small parties are expected to play a crucial role too, given an increase in support for them due to deep unhappiness with the larger parties since 2016.
The Freedom Front Plus, the IFP, the UDM and Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA are likely to play a key role in provinces and metros, as will independent candidates and ratepayer associations in provinces such as the North West.
Despite privately conceding they might need to form coalitions, ANC and DA leaders have urged South Africans not to vote for small parties, saying they need outright control of municipalities to effect change and deliver services.
If the ANC does agree to a tie-up with the DA, it will shut the door on the EFF, which the DA has labelled rent seekers after it worked with the party after the 2016 elections.
While the debate has largely centred on the DA’s willingness to enter into a coalition with the ANC, the governing party has up to now been mum on its appetite for coalitions.
A senior ANC leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said “the ANC has not yet taken a stance to exclude any party” from potential coalition talks. Another concurred, saying the party is focusing on the last leg of the campaign ahead of Monday’s elections.
Business Day understands that the DA is warming to potential coalitions with the ANC due to polling by both parties showing the City of Johannesburg on a knife edge, and no party winning in Tshwane and Ekurhuleni in Gauteng, and Nelson Mandela Bay in the Eastern Cape.
A senior DA leader, speaking to Business Day, said the party has reached a point where it has to look at the country’s interests.
The party believes that “where the DA governs, it governs better” but it has to ask itself what SA “will look like if the DA do not help the ANC govern”, the person said.
“The DA and ANC working together may be in the best interest of SA.”
EFF election spokesperson Leigh-Ann Mathys told Business Day the party has not “thought about or discussed coalitions with any other party”.
In the aftermath of the 2016 election, the EFF placed conditions on the table for its potential coalition partners and held high-level talks with the ANC as well as with the DA.
In the end, it did not enter any formal coalition, agreeing instead to work with the DA to hand it control of key metros in a loose co-operation pact.
The ANC lost Johannesburg and Tshwane in 2016 after registering a decline of about 10 percentage points in both metros when many of its supporters stayed away. If recent electoral trends continue, a number of other municipalities and metros could also be up for grabs — including eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal and Mangaung in the Free State, which the ANC governs with a 56% majority.
In an interview, DA leader John Steenhuisen spelt out who it would go into coalition with.
“On a case-by-case basis [the DA would] explore coalition discussions but only with parties or breakaway movements that share the core values of nonracialism, respect for the rule of law and the constitution, a capable state free of cadre deployment and a social market economy that treats business as a partner in economic growth and job creation.”
With Natasha Marrian
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