The latest electricity crisis, which has plunged the country into rolling blackouts just days before elections, could alter the outcome of Monday’s municipal polls, which were already set to be a watershed moment for SA’s two biggest political parties.
The power crisis, which has led SA to suffer its worst cuts since load-shedding made it into the country’s vocabulary about 14 years ago, has cast a shadow over the ANC’s campaign, with the party already on the defensive about a lack of delivery and collapsing municipalities.
President Cyril Ramaphosa was met by frustrated residents in Soweto and Orange Farm earlier this week as anger boiled over at power cuts that last as long as six hours at a time.
“The lack of electricity could wreak havoc on the ANC campaign,” Tony Leon, a former leader of the main opposition DA, told Business Day, adding that the governing party can no longer rely on Ramaphosa’s popularity to lure voters.
Voters go to the polls with the country having moved to stage 4 load-shedding this week when Eskom lost almost half of its coal-powered capacity.
In the latter years of Jacob Zuma’s presidency, the utility became a poster child for state capture and mismanagement. This week’s cuts prompted public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan to call a media conference where he assured the country there would be no cuts on Monday.
Leon said this “is probably the first time that you see [the hostility towards the ANC] expressed quite widely”.
Leon said the DA had been experiencing a divergence of opinion internally and had “muddled” talk about potential coalitions, which may affect its performance. Business Day has reported that some DA leaders are privately contemplating
co-operation with the ANC.
Polling by Ipsos released on Wednesday forecasts low voter turnout on election day, which could hamper the ANC’s aim of winning back lost municipalities and retaining those it governs.
About 14.6-million people out of a total registered 26.2-million are expected to cast their ballots on Monday, according to the market research company.
Surveys have consistently shown both the main parties losing support, while the EFF is seen posting gains.
People may express their disappointment in the government at the polls, according to Frank Chikane, former director- general in the office of the presidency under Thabo Mbeki.
He also noted voter anger at corruption.
“We have to make sure that we are never governed by corrupt leaders,” he said.
“We don’t want a situation where criminals are looking after the country ... It is unacceptable in any democracy.”
As the country was plunged into darkness, Gordhan also pointed to human error: an employee ignored a warning light at one of the units at Eskom’s Kusile power station.
For some, this had echoes of 2006, when one of his predecessors, Alec Erwin, blamed human error for the shutdown of Koeberg unit one reactors, which caused severe cuts in the Western Cape. That was said to have played into the hands of the DA, which managed to unseat the ANC as the governing party in Cape Town.
After the implementation of this week’s power cuts, the ANC conceded in a statement that load-shedding could undermine its election promise to provide reliable power to communities.
The ANC lost Tshwane and Johannesburg to the opposition in 2016, with a similar turn of events expected next week. A recent Ipsos poll put support for the ANC at 49% nationally, down from 57.5% in the 2019 election.
“The [expected low] turnout will affect all parties, including the DA and the ANC,” Leon said.
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