As voting drew to a close on Monday night early indications were of a historically low turnout countrywide, signalling that voters have shunned political parties and that their faith in democracy is in decline.
At 7pm on Monday the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) said with two hours to go only 30% of those eligible had voted. This was way off the 54% recorded in the previous municipal elections in 2016. That year ANC supporters stayed away en masse, while the DA reaped the benefits and smaller parties such as the EFF became kingmakers in some of the metros.
However, with many smaller parties having entered the mix, the DA’s support may be chipped away, leaving it less of a beneficiary of the bigger suburban turnout than it has been in the past.
Election analyst Wayne Sussman said it was unclear how the turnout would affect support this time round, as it depended on the extent of the turnout in ANC and DA strongholds.
"From what I have seen so far, it is a worrying sign for the ANC. Whether the 2016 pattern for the DA will hold in [the] suburbs, we don’t know. It is unlikely. We don’t know, for instance, how well ActionSA is doing in Joburg, how well the Freedom Front Plus will do, and in the south of Johannesburg there is also the factor of the Patriotic Alliance and Al-Jamah," he said.
This means Joburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay all remain in the balance, as they were in 2016, and even eThekwini and Mangaung could be marginal.
Opposition party coalitions took charge of Johannesburg, the economic hub, and Tshwane, the capital, as well as other urban centres in the vote five years ago, gaining control of more than R130bn in budgets. But those coalitions have proved unstable, with power changing hands several times in some towns.
While the impact is certain to reverberate through political parties, which will have to take stock of their offering, there is also concern that a low turnout indicates a deterioration in the quality of democracy and people’s trust in politicians.
Voting was also plagued by logistical problems and there were hundreds of reports of people who had been unable to find their names on the voters roll, despite having registered.
Terry Tselane, executive chair of the Institute of Election Management Services in Africa, said: "Even though [the IEC] only has to declare the results, the people assuming office will have a legitimacy problem as they were elected into office by a small number of people."
Both the ANC and the DA are at a difficult point in their lives, facing challenges to do with their survival. Should the ANC slip below 50% or the DA 20%, their fortunes for the 2024 election will be significantly reduced.
While Monday’s turnout was low, the day was packed with drama, including the removal by police of DA federal council chair Helen Zille from an Eastern Cape voting station, polling stations in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape opening late due to protests over poor services, and several minor skirmishes between opposing party supporters. There was an arrest for ballot-stuffing of a presiding officer in KwaZulu-Natal.
In a matter that may delay the results if a complaint is laid with the electoral court, political parties raised serious grievances over some voters not appearing on the voters roll. Many voters who registered a change of address have also complained that they were unable to cast their votes as a result of the new information not being captured and IEC staff not being adequately trained.
Several insiders Business Day spoke to have confirmed that there was "upheaval" in the IEC’s party liaison committee meetings. It is understood the electoral body was racing against time to rectify many of the problems by sending supplementary forms to voting stations, which allow a vote if one can provide proof of residence.
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